Population Profile

Oregon’s battle against sprawl is well known, particularly in the Portland area. But with a 28 percent increase in Portland’s population during the 1990s, growth has led to traffic congestion, longer commutes, and inflated home prices (which increased 44 percent in the 1990s).4/

Oregon’s immigrant population more than doubled during the 1990s, increasing 108 percent during the 1990s. Between 1990 and 2000, Oregon gained 150,000 immigrants.

Foreign-Born Population 

Oregon’s foreign-born population increased by 26 percent between 2000 and 2006. During that period Oregon gained over 75,000 immigrants, bringing the total number of foreign-born residents in the state to over 365,000.

Environmental and Quality of Life Profile

Water: Between 2000 and 2006, Oregon’s population rose by 8.2 percent, including a nearly one-fourth (24.2%) net increase in the immigrant population.^5/ That contrasts with the 6.7 percent increase in the native-born population and that included the children born to immigrants. When the U.S.-born children of immigrants are included, immigrants account for well over two-fifths (44.4%) of Oregon’s growth.^6/ By 2050, Oregon’s population is expected to top 6 million, a 62.5 percent increase from its population in 2006.^7/  Oregon has a per-capita, water demand of 165 gallons each day.^8/ This means that by 2050 the public may demand up to 381.8 million gallons more per day than in 2006. Shrinking resources due to global warming, exacerbated by this increase in population may pose dire circumstances in the years ahead.

Particularly in areas such as the Rogue Basin, climate change threatens the current state of the water resources. Current projections suggest that temperatures may climb 15 degrees by 2080. In turn, this temperature elevation would mean diminishing mountain snowpacks and less water to sustain river and stream flows. Making matters worse, runoff will occur more rapidly and earlier in the year as snows melt, causing increased threat of floods. Followed later in the year by increased periods of drought and declining surface water levels.^9/ 

Water shortages may come to some areas of Oregon sooner than others. New analysis reveals that most towns in Yamhill County, a rapidly growing area, could face shortages by 2010. All water rights in the basin of Yamhill county’s rivers and tributaries are fully appropriated during low flow periods, and groundwater has been steadily declining. Clearly, the water resources cannot keep pace with the area’s growth. Already, several towns have faced mandatory water restrictions during dry spells.^10/ With finite water resources, Oregon simply cannot continue growing forever.

Traffic: As population growth put more traffic on the roads, the average commute for Oregon residents increased since the 1990s, from 20 minutes in 1990 to 21.9 minutes in 2005. 11/, 12/ 51% of Oregon's major urban roads are congested, and 38% of Oregon's major roads are in poor or mediocre condition. Vehicle travel on Oregon's highways increased 31% from 1990 to 2003. Driving on roads in need of repair costs Oregon motorists $684 million a year in extra vehicle repairs and operating costs --- $264 per motorist. Congestion in the Eugene area costs commuters $162 per person per year in excess fuel and lost time, $733 in the Portland area, and $258 in Salem area. 13/

In Salem travelers experience an annual delay of 15 hours, and an annual delay of 9 hours in Eugene. Travers in the Portland-Washington area experience an annual delay of 39 hours, a figure that ranks 26^th in the nation. 14/  11 percent or commuters in Oregon have a commute that is 45 minutes or more. 15/

Oregon drivers in urban areas spent more than twice as much time in traffic delays in 2001 as they did in 1991.16/ The Portland area had the eleventh worst traffic congestion in the nation in 2000. The hours of delay caused by area rush hour translate into a cost of $670 million, as well as use of an extra 57 million gallons of fuel. 17/

Disappearing open space: Each year, Oregon loses 20,800 acres of open space and farmland due to development. 18/ In December 2002, the Portland area’s regional government voted to allow development on 18,600 acres of rural land in and around its suburbs. 19/ Portland, once a model for limiting urban growth, has been forced by a growing population to repeatedly expand its urban boundary, most recently urbanizing 200 hundred acres in nearby Hillsboro, 370 acres in West Lynn, 520 acres bordering Forest Park, and 720 acres in Bethany (which is about half of its farmland). 20/ About eight acres in Portland were paved for development each day during the 1990s. 21/ Portland’s population increase has forced more and more development of the area within the growth boundary, crowding current residents and eating up any pastoral areas. 22/, 23/

Crowded housing: In 2005 over 39,000 Oregon households were defined by housing authorities as crowded or severely crowded. 24/ Studies show that a rise in crowded housing often correlates with an increase in the number of foreign-born. 25/, 26/ In areas with migrant farm workers, overcrowding housing is common, such as Woodburn, where eleven percent of the population live in crowded housing, and Gervais, where it’s 16 percent. In Prescot, on the Columbia River west of Portland, 15 percent of residents live with one or more people to a room. 27/ They are followed by residents of Boardman in northeastern Oregon, where eleven percent of people double up. 28/

Sprawl: Oregon mayors have been fighting a state requirement that communities periodically plan for population growth in the next 20 years by designating new land for development, which they say facilitates population-driven sprawl. 29/ Due to that requirement, Portland’s regional government agreed in December 2002 to the largest expansion of allowable development in its history—18,600 acres—simply to accommodate population growth anticipated over the next 20 years. 30/ Residents of Portland suburb Damascus fought unsuccessfully the proposal, which will urbanize over 10,000 acres in their area. 31/ In other communities, like Wilsonville, sprawl and its associated effects have become residents’ principal complaints. 32/

A study of urban sprawl between 1970 and 1990 that calculated the impact of population increase and per capita land use found that 121.2 square miles of additional land were consumed by urban sprawl in the Portland land area, which crosses over into Vancouver, OR and Washington, and 93.8 percent of that sprawl was attributable to population increase. 33/

Air pollution: As population increases, pollution usually rises along with it. Heavily populated Portland got a “D” in air quality on a Sierra Club evaluation of urban livability. 34/ The EPA says that, due to pollution from population-related sources like car exhaust, every resident of Oregon is exposed to elevated levels of air toxic pollutants. 35/ The counties surrounding Portland are now in the top five percent of U.S. counties with residents are most likely to develop cancer linked to air toxins. 36/

Poverty: In 2005 23.4 percent of immigrants in Oregon had incomes below the poverty level, an increase of 42.1 percent since 2000. Among non-citizens, the poverty rate climbs to 29.3 percent.  37/

Education: Between 2000 and 2005 Oregon’s K-12 student enrollment increased by over 7,000 students, 38/, 39/ and in projected to increase by an additional 23,000 students by the year 2015. 40/. Oregon’s student-teacher ration of 19.5 ranks 48^th in the United States. 41/

In some school districts, like Portland’s David Douglas district, two out of three new students are immigrants. 42/ In the Portland suburbs, some schools have both been operating at as much as 114 percent of their capacity. 43/ Population growth forced Oregon City into a $67 million bond issue to fund the construction of a new high school and four new elementary schools. 44/ In Hillsboro where the district grew by 14 percent (2,200 students) in just five years, parents complain of children taught in stuffed schools, where classes are held on noisy stages, in makeshift library classrooms, and in cramped portables; physical education and music classes have dwindled to 20-minute periods, and where children begin eating lunch as early as 10:30 a.m. to fit in all the necessary lunch periods. 45/

Solid Waste: Oregon generates 1.16 tons of solid waste per capita. 46/

Illegal Residents: In a month-long investigation of Portland’s service industry in 2001, immigration agents review paperwork for 3,306 employees and discovered that 25 percent were illegal aliens .47/ Recent raids by government officials have found hundreds of illegal aliens working in Oregon’s service and tourist industries 48/, 49/ and involved in ID fraud, 50/, 51/, 52/  as well as immigrants charged with working to support terrorism here and abroad. 53/

 Endnotes:

1. FAIR estimate based on the 2006 Current Population Survey.
2. "Estimates of the Unauthorized Migrant Population for States based on the March 2005 CPS", Pew Hispanic Center.
3. Martin, Jack. “Breaking the Piggy Bank: How Illegal Immigration is Sending Schools into the Red,” A Report by the Federation for American Immigration Reform.
4. Tara Burghart, “Urban Planning, Oregon-Style, Gets Strong Support, Criticism,” Associated Press, May 31, 2001.
5. U.S. Census Bureau 2006.
6.  Jack Martin, “Issue Brief: Estimation of Foreign Born Birthrate,” FAIR, 2008.
7.  Jack Martin and Stanley Fogel, “Projecting the U.S. Population to 2050,” FAIR, March 2006
8.  U.S. Geological Survey 2000.
9.  Paul Fattig, “The bad news? Climate change will bring floods, fires, droughts,” Mail Tribune, June 29, 2008.
10.  U.S. Water News Online, “Towns in Oregon wine country area may face water shortages,” April 2008
11. “Table DP-1-4, Profile of General Demographic Characteristics: 1990 and 2000,” Census 2000, U.S. Census Bureau.
12. Selected Economic Characteristics: 2005 Data Set - 2005 American Community Survey, American Fact Finder, U.S. Census Bureau.
13. Report Card for America's Infrastructure 2005," American Society of Civil Engineers.
14. "The 2005 Urban Mobility Report", Texas Transportation Institute.
15. “U.S. Population 2007 Data Sheet,” Population Reference Bureau.
16. Jeff Mapes, “Oregon Makes Gains but Problems Persist, Report Says,” The Oregonian, March 16, 2003.
17. Bill Stewart, “Portland, Oregon, Groups Say Report’s Conclusion of Area Congestion is Flawed,” The Oregonian, June 21, 2002.
18. “State Rankings by Acreage and Rate of Non-federal Land Developed,” Natural Resources Conservation Service, United States Department of Agriculture.
19. Laura Oppenheimer, “Damascus Waits to See How Growth will Proceed,” The Oregonian, March 31, 2003.
20. Laura Oppenheimer, “Growth Boundary Move Draws Critics in Portland, Ore.,” The Oregonian, February 19, 2003.
21. Elizabeth Murtaugh, “Northwest Gets Mixed Reviews in Report on Regional Well-being,” Associated Press, March 18, 2002.
22. Laura Oppenheimer, “Housing Density Debate Hinges on Quality of Life Issues,” The Oregonian, April 14, 2002.
23. Steve Amick, “Growth in Canby Pushes the Last Horse Out of Town,” The Oregonian, January 3, 2002.
24. “Oregon State Factsheet,” Migration Information Source, Migration Policy Institute.
25. Haya El Nasser, “U.S. Neighborhoods Grow More Crowded,” USA Today, July 7, 2002.
26. Randy Capps, “Hardship Among Children of Immigrants: Findings from the 1999 National Survey of America’s Families,” Urban Institute, 2001.
27. “Details of Oregon Life Seen in Census 2000 Data,” Associated Press, May 14, 2002.
28. Ibid.
29. Dana Tims, “West Linn Mayor Wants to Lead Statewide Reform of Growth Law,” The Oregonian, December 12, 2002.
30. Laura Oppenheimer, “Damascus Waits to See How Growth will Proceed,” The Oregonian, March 31, 2003.
31. Laura Oppenheimer, “Metro Hears Damascus Area Residents’ Resistance,” The Oregonian, October 11, 2002.
32. Dana Tims, “Urban Growth Spurs Talk, No Consensus,” The Oregonian, January 11, 2002.
33. Beck, Roy and Leon Kolankiewicz, “Weighing Sprawl Factors in Large U.S. Cities,” NumbersUSA, March 2001.
34. William McCall, “Sierra Club Gives Portland 'D’ for Air, Public Transit Efforts,” Associated Press, November 16, 2001.
35. Andy Dworkin, “National Study Finds 'Air Toxics’ in Northwest,” The Oregonian, June 4, 2002.
36. Ibid.
37. “Oregon State Factsheet,” Migration Information Source, Migration Policy Institute.
38. "Overview of Public Elementary and Secondary Schools and Districts: School Year 1999-2000," National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education.
39. "Public Elementary and Secondary School Student Enrollment, High School Completions, and Staff From the Common Core of Data: School Year 2005-06', National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, June 2007.
40. Projections of Education Statistics to 2015, National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education.
41. "Public Elementary and Secondary School Student Enrollment, High School Completions, and Staff From the Common Core of Data: School Year 2005-06', National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, June 2007.
42. Tracy Jan, “As Enrollment at Oregon Schools Declines, Local Districts Buck Trend,” The Oregonian, October 31, 2002.
43. “This Week’s Question: How Crowded Is Too Crowded in a Classroom?,” The Oregonian, October 27, 2001.
44. Noelle Crombie, “New High School, Classrooms Come Off Drawing Board,” The Oregonian, April 10, 2001
45. Paige Parker, “Half of the Elementary Schools in the Sprawling Hillsboro School District Post Poor Performances,” The Oregonian, April 17, 2001.
46. Report Card for America's Infrastructure 2005," American Society of Civil Engineers
47. Gillian Flaccus, “INS Audit Removes About 800 From Local Workforce,” Associated Press, September 10, 2001.
48. Ibid.
49. Mike Cronin, “Mexican Workers Face INS, Uncertainty,” Bend Bulletin, September 13, 2001.
50. “Portland Man Arrested in Green Card Scam,” Associated Press, February 28, 2003
51. “State Says Fire Crews Hired Improperly,” Associated Press, March 17, 2002.
52. “INS Breaks Up Fake Document Business,” Associated Press, December 6, 2002
53. Andrew Kramer, “FBI Arrests Four - Three in Portland - on Charges of Aiding al Qaeda,” Associated Press, October 4, 2002.