Birth Rates, Population Growth and the Economy (2013)

September 2013 | View the Full Report (PDF) 

Executive Summary

The United States population has been fast growing and is projected to continue to do so. That increase comes from immigration and natural change (more births than deaths). But there are significant differences in the demographic data on changes in birth rates and immigration rates among the states, and that allows for analysis as to how these data interrelate. 

The 15 states with the highest rates of birth also have by far the highest rates of immigrant settlement as seen in the growth of the foreign-born population and the overall population.

The same 15 states do not display any marked benefit in economic performance, however, thereby showing the fallacy of the argument that population growth is needed for economic growth. This shows that the rate of immigration could be reduced — which would bring the 15 high immigration, high birth rate, and high population growth states more into line with the rest of the country without any evidence that this would have an adverse effect on the economy.