What the Cartel Civil War at the Border Means for Drugs and Immigration
In September 2024, a shootout between rival factions in the fearsome Sinaloa Cartel led to the deaths of a Mexican soldier and two civilians. The trigger appears to have been a clash between factions, with one loyal to Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada clashing with another faction. Zambada, who is currently on trial in federal court in Brooklyn for his drug smuggling activities, alleges he was taken to the U.S. against his will by a rival faction.
The Sinaloa Cartel does appear to be in a state of flux, a process that has been in motion since the arrest of its former leader, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman. The arrest has set off a power struggle, with 150 murders linked to the cartel civil war in the last month alone. This increased violence will have dramatic consequences for the U.S. border, drug smuggling, and illegal immigration. The growing friction comes as cartels had been enjoying a period of record profits thanks to poor policies on both sides of the Rio Grande.
The Biden-Harris administration and its policies have helped the cartels massively by effectively opening the border to human smuggling. The cartels have also benefited from the weak policies of the Mexican government. The administration of former Mexican president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador disbanded anti-cartel units in the police, urged the U.S. not to launch anti-cartel activity, and has not shared data on drug seizures with the U.S. government.
Clashes within cartels can do two things. In the first case, it can lead to sudden changes in leadership as former leaders are killed and replaced with those with different operational styles and priorities. Additionally, intra-cartel wars can lead to splinters forming from previous cartel personnel, increasing the number of active gangs depending on the number of cells the splits create. This fragmentation can only further increase violence.
Historical experience also teaches that increasing levels of cartel violence tend to be worse at the U.S. border rather than the interior of Mexico, making them much more of a threat to American lives and property. A 2018 study analyzing previous rounds of cartel violence found that violence was highest in border states of Mexico, as these are gateways for trafficking drugs and smuggling people to the U.S. This violence would be particularly marked when two or more cartels are active in one locale, and therefore in competition. These conditions are all being met in the current round of violence.
Violence along the border impacts the American families and businesses based there. The fallout has already included violence and threats of violence against Native American tribes that live near the border. The cartels have a well-deserved reputation for brutality and ruthlessness that needs little introduction or elaboration. In addition to this appetite for violence, they possess the firepower to make it happen. Project Thor estimated that cartels smuggle as many as 1 million weapons into Mexico from the U.S. per year with a retail value of $500 million. The cartel armory includes rotary machine guns, armor-piercing bullets, and even infrared rocket launchers. This firepower compares to the relatively lightly armed Border Patrol staff, whose bulletproof vests offer little protection against armor-piercing rounds and missiles.
The physical danger to Americans caused by the Sinaloa war is already apparent. The Sinaloa Cartel has given its members permission to shoot U.S. Border Patrol officers. During the last major civil war between the cartels, U.S. Border Patrol agent Brian A. Terry was murdered by cartel members. They had been trying to rob rival cartels on “their” territory, a sign of the brutality these clashes unleash for all concerned. If the border is not secured soon, the potential of a cartel civil war and its bloody consequences will further impact all Americans, whether they are at the border or not.