Report Counts Fewer Mexican Nationals in U.S.; Is it April Fools’ Day?

A new report, citing census figures, claims that the Mexican population in the U.S. declined by 1 million over the past decade. The study’s reliance on incomplete government data — while downplaying the growing presence of illegal aliens – invites a healthy dose of skepticism, and calls for more comprehensive research.

The Migration Policy Institute (MPI) reported that there were about 10.7 million Mexican-born individuals living in the U.S. in 2021, down 9 percent from 2010. That’s only part of the picture, of however.

The 10.7 million figure does not include millions of Mexicans illegally present in this country. Thus, MPI’s statement that “the number of unauthorized immigrants from Mexico has been on the decline” is risible.

Though it is plausible that the percentage of Mexicans in the illegal alien population has been diluted by a surge of migrants from across the globe, the raw numbers remain impressive.

FAIR’s analysis of Census Bureau data — from which MPI drew its conclusions – has determined that up to 5 million illegal aliens went uncounted. “Of course, not all of those are from Mexico, but it’s probably still close to half,” says Spencer Raley, FAIR’s director of research. (MPI estimates that 48 percent of illegal aliens are Mexicans.)

On the legal side of the ledger, news reports indicate that the 2020 Census undercounted Hispanics by 5 percent. “Include the even lower likelihood of illegal aliens to respond to census efforts during the Trump administration and this could explain the lower totals,” Raley notes.

That said, there is no doubt that demographics are shifting. More migrants are coming from the Northern Triangle countries of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, and overseas. Ongoing chaotic conditions at the U.S.-Mexico border make precise recordkeeping impossible. But with more than 2 million illegal aliens entering this country since Joe Biden assumed office in 2021, taking the “over” on Mexican migrants would seem a logical bet.

MPI itself admits that its numbers may be behind the counting curve: “The COVID-19 pandemic seems to have slowed this decline [sic] somewhat. And the public-health crisis also may have played a role in returning Mexicans to the top nationality for new arrivals, outpacing those from China and India for the first time in several years.”

The assertion that there are fewer Mexican nationals in this country than 10 years ago just doesn’t add up.