As Election Approaches, Immigration Concerns Are Rising in the Polls
Grasping at straws from 1,000 registered voters, a recent NBC poll mutes its own findings on immigration to claim that Democrats have tied Republicans seven weeks before Election Day.
But go beyond the contrived/cheerleading headline, “Abortion, Trump boost midterm prospects for Democrats,” and the survey reveals that immigration is a major and growing concern.
Sixty-eight percent of respondents said the U.S. is “on the wrong track.” “Border control/illegal immigration” was the second most cited reason; “economy/inflation” topped the list.
A second-place ranking for immigration concerns is higher than they typically receive in national polling.
“Among those who believe the country is on the wrong track, more blame illegal immigration and the border than “Joe Biden” and “gas prices” (tied at 14 percent), “crime/violence/killings” (13 percent) and “women’s reproductive rights” (5 percent),” notes Andrew Arthur of the Center for Immigration Studies.
Two more recent polls cited by The New York Times signaled a shift toward two issues where Republicans have the advantage: immigration and the economy. Significantly, these surveys by ABC and CBS polled “likely voters,” a more statistically reliable predictor of actual voting behavior.
“The difference between likely voters and registered voters is especially important in midterm elections. The lower turnout allows the party with higher enthusiasm — usually the party out of power, in a midterm — to enjoy a more sizable turnout advantage than in a higher-turnout presidential election,” The Times explained.
While characterizing immigration issues as “mixed and highly partisan,” the Gallup polling organization has found that voters’ preference for reducing all forms of immigration is trending upward.
As calls for decreased immigration remain strongest among Republicans — whose preference for reducing immigration is up 21 points since June 2020, to 48 percent – Gallup says the percentage of Democrats sharing that view climbed four points to 17 percent. Thirty-three percent of Independents now want lower immigration levels, a gain of five points.
By the numbers, fewer Americans are buying what Joe Biden is selling.