The Biden Bump: FAIR Estimates Illegal Alien Population Has Grown 2.3 Million in Two Years

An analysis by FAIR of the most recent Census Bureau data reveals that at least 16.8 million illegal aliens now reside in the United States. This figure represents an increase of 1.3 million just since the beginning of 2022, and 2.3 million since President Biden took office in January 2021. At the current pace of illegal immigration, more illegal aliens will have entered the United States in the first three years of the Biden administration than in the entire decade of the 2010’s.

 Along with the sharp increase in the illegal alien population comes sharp increases in costs to American taxpayers. The unprecedented level of influx of new illegal aliens over the past year will add $12.6 billion annually to the costs of illegal immigration, bringing the cumulative net cost to at least $163 billion a year. At the current pace of illegal immigration, the annual net cost will exceed $200 billion by 2026.

FAIR’s 16.8 million estimate is a very conservative one. The Census Bureau measures the foreign-born population, and the subset of that population that is here illegally, in its annual American Community Survey (ACS) and its monthly Current Population Survey (CPS). By the Bureau’s own reckoning, their surveys undercount the illegal alien population by about 30 percent because people in that cohort are reluctant to respond to their inquiries.

 Additionally, the Bureau’s survey samples only track people with fixed addresses that are on file with the government. As we know from the growing chorus of complaints from governors and mayors across the country, a large percentage of the newly arriving illegal aliens are residing in temporary shelters. The surveys also exclude the huge number of “gotaways” or other individuals who have been paroled into the U.S. and live under the radar. FAIR’s analysis relies only on the available data and avoids speculating about the size of the illegal population for which no data are available – even though those numbers are quite significant. 

Likewise, the estimate of an additional $12.6 billion in public costs – over and above the $151 billion documented in FAIR’s report, The Fiscal Burden of Illegal Immigration on United States Taxpayer, which was released in March – is conservative, and destined to grow in coming years. Over time, the newly arriving migrants will increase their use of publicly-funded schools, health care and other costly services. Moreover, the Biden administration continues to find new ways to abuse its very limited power to parole migrants into the country in order to make it seem as though the illegal immigration crisis is abating. Those admitted under humanitarian parole have greater access to welfare benefits than other illegal aliens, making their presence in the country even more expensive to taxpayers. 

Among other key findings of FAIR’s update of the illegal alien population: 

• As of April 2023, the foreign-born population of the United States was just under 50 million – an all-time high. 
• One out of every three foreign-born residents of the United States is an illegal alien. 
• Between January 20, 2021 and April 30, 2023, some 2.3 million new illegal aliens have taken up residence in the United States. 
• The current illegal alien population is greater than that of all but four U.S. states – California, Texas, Florida and New York. 

The full report, How Many Illegal Aliens Are in the United States? is available here.