- State Population
- Foreign-Born Population
- Immigrant Admissions
- Illegal Aliens
- Population Projection
- Foreign Students
- Immigration Impact
- Other Resources
|Population (2011 CB est.):||6,482,505|
|Population (2000 CB est.):||5,130,632|
|Foreign-Born Population (2011 CB est.)||871,667|
|Foreign-Born Population (2000 CB est.)||656,183|
|Share Foreign-Born (2011)||13.4%|
|Share Foreign-Born (2000)||9.9%|
|Naturalized U.S. Citizens (2011 CB est.):||327,453|
|Share Naturalized (2011):||37.6%|
|Legal Immigrant Admission (DHS 2001 – 2010):||182,257|
|Refugee Admission (HHS 2000 – 2009)||23,425|
|Illegal Alien Population (2010 FAIR est.):||390,000|
|Costs of Illegal Aliens (2009 FAIR)||$2,568,668,603|
|Projected 2050 Population (2006 FAIR)||13,793,000|
According to the Census Bureau, the population of Arizona in 2011 was 6,482,505.
Between 2000 (population 5,130,632) and 2011, the state's average annual population change was 120,166 residents. That was an annual average percentage change of about 2.1%. The comparable national annual percentage rate of change was about 0.9%.
Between 1990 (population 3,665,228) and 2000, the state's annual average population change was 146,540 residents. The annual average percentage rate of change was about 3.4% compared to the national rate of change of 1.2%.
According to the Census Bureau the foreign-born population of Arizona was about 871,667 persons in 2011. This estimate meant a foreign-born population share of 13.4 percent. The chart above shows the long-term change in the state's foreign-born population based on Census Bureau data.
Between 2000 and 2011 the Census Bureau estimate indicates an average annual rate of change in the foreign-born population of about 19,154 people, compared to the state's annual average population change of about 120,166 people. That is a 15.9 percent share of the state's population change (not including the children born in the United States to illegal aliens).
Immigration also contributes to population growth through the U.S.-born children of immigrants. Nationally the share of births to the foreign-born is about double their share of the population. A 26.9 percent share of the state's current births is large enough to account for about 23,405 births a year. Combining the average increase in the foreign-born population and estimated immigrant births suggests that immigration may account for about 42,559 persons added to the state's population annually, i.e., nearly 35.4 percent of the state's overall population increase.
As of 2011 about 33.0 percent of Arizona's foreign-born population had arrived in the state since 2000. This compares with the national average 35.7 percent. In 2000, 48.4 percent of the state's foreign-born population that had arrived since the previous Census.
An indicator of the change in Arizona's immigrant population may be seen in data on the share of the population over five years of age that speaks a language other than English at home. Between 2000 and 2010, the share of non-English speakers changed from 25.9 percent to 26.7 percent. About 43.9 percent of those persons in 2000 also said they spoke English less than very well. In the 2010 estimate, the share was 36.9 percent that spoke English less than very well. In 2010 Spanish speakers were 76.3 percent of those who spoke other than English at home, and 79.6 percent of those who spoke English less than very well.
The chart above shows the foreign-born population changed by 30.6 percent between 2000 and 2010. In that time, the share of that population from Latin America and the Caribbean changed by 22.0 percent. That region's share of the state's immigrant population grew from 71.5 percent to 66.8 percent in 2010.
The most recent Census Bureau data in 2011 indicate that 327,453 residents of Arizona, or 37.6 percent, of the foreign-born population in Arizona were naturalized U.S. citizens, compared to 193,944 residents, or 29.6 percent, in 2000.
Nationally, 40.3 percent of the foreign-born population was naturalized in 2000, and 44.9 percent in 2011.
Net International Migration (NIM)
Using the Current Population Survey (CPS), the Census Bureau estimated that between 2000 and 2011, the change in Arizona's population resulting from net international migration has been about 20,593 people. It was 28.4 percent of total change (not including the children born to the immigrants after their arrival in the United States). The remainder was due to net domestic migration and natural change (births minus deaths).
Recent "green card" recipients who intend to reside in Arizona were 447.3 percent of the level of admissions just after adoption of the current immigration system in 1965. During the 1965 to 1969 period, annual admissions averaged about 3,615 persons. During the most recent five years, annual admissions averaged about 19,787 persons.
Immigrant admissions data are from the Yearbook of Immigration Statistics.
The chart above shows recent immigrant admissions and the cumulative amount of immigrant admissions since FY'65. The cumulative total of immigrant admissions to Arizona between fiscal years 1965 and 2010 has been 458,425 persons.
The data for fiscal years 1989-91 were artificially raised by the inclusion of former illegal aliens who were amnestied in 1986. According to INS data (1991) the number of amnesty applicants from Arizona was 82,649 (29,261 pre-1982 residents and 53,388 agricultural workers). These data were published by the Immigration and Naturalization Service and reported in "Report on the Legalized Alien Population," March 1992.
Admissions by Nationality: FY'96 - FY'05
The table below furnishes INS data by nationality on the immigrants who were admitted for residence in Arizona between 1996 and 2005.
The INS data are for nationals of the countries with the largest number of immigrants admitted or adjusted to legal residence each year since 1996. The absence of data means that the total number of admissions to the United States by nationals of that country was not enough to merit detailed reporting in that year.
The Department of Homeland Security website has detailed data on immigrant admissions since FY'03 by year and by source country and intended state of residence. (See http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/publications/yearbook.shtm) then select the desired year, click Legal Permanent Residents, data and then select "supplemental table 1."
Arizona has received 23,425 refugees over the most recent ten fiscal years including 4,724 refugees in fiscal year 2009. Refugee settlement is the only immigration program that requires consent of the state government. The chart above shows the annual admissions over the last ten years and the cumulative total of those admissions using data complied by the Office of Refugee Resettlement in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
The U.S. government program that distributes new refugees among the states is the only immigration program that provides state governments the opportunity to participate in deciding how many newcomers will come to that state each year.
|Arizona Fiscal Costs
Due to Illegal Aliens
|Source: "The State Cost Studies"
FAIR Estimate - FAIR estimates the illegal alien population of Arizona as of 2010 was about 390,000 persons. This is part of an overall estimate of the U.S. illegal alien population of about 11,900,000 persons.
DHS Estimate - The current estimate by DHS of the illegal alien population in Arizona was 470,000 in 2010. The DHS estimate is available for only the 10 states with the largest illegal alien populations. The DHS estimate of the national illegal alien population in 2010 was 10,790,000.
Other Estimates - The Pew Hispanic Center estimates the illegal alien population of the state at 400,000 as of 2010.
Fiscal Cost of Illegal Aliens
FAIR's most recent estimate of the cost outlays due to illegal immigration and tax receipts from illegal aliens in Arizona are as shown on the right:
Limited English Proficiency Students
Data are not available nationally on immigrant students (either legally or illegally resident in the United States) who are enrolled in primary and secondary schools (K-12). However, a large majority of these students enrolled in Limited English Proficiency/English Language Learning (LEP/ELL) instruction programs may be assumed to be children of either legal or illegal immigrants with a predominance of children of illegal aliens.
In Arizona, LEP public school enrollment in 2010 ( 116,506) was 93.0 percent of LEP enrollment a decade earlier. By contrast, overall K-12 enrollment in the state was 126.7 percent of enrollment a decade earlier.
FAIR projected Arizona's population in 2050 likely would be between 13,401,000 million and 13,793,000 million with current levels of immigration. Alternatively, the population could be lower (11,356,000) if immigration were reduced to a level where it balanced the number of U.S. residents leaving to reside outside of the United states, i.e., zero-net immigration. See "Projecting the U.S. Population to 2050: Four Immigration Scenarios," FAIR 2006.
Data compiled by the Institute of International Education (IIE) record the number of foreign students attending post-secondary school in Arizona as 10,676 in 2010.
The chart to the right illustrates the change in the number of foreign students attending school in Arizona since 1997.
For information on foreign student issues see: Foreign Students in the United States.
Water: Through a series of conservation efforts, Arizona residents have been able to bring down daily per capita water use from 154 gallons to 115 since 2000, a sizeable 26% reduction.1 Nevertheless, population growth and dwindling water resources challenge the notion that Arizona can continue to expand with unchecked growth. "I have no doubt that within the next five to ten years, we will be in a shortage," said David Modeer, Tucson, Arizona's Water Director. "It does not look good."2
Even with the reduction in water use, at 115 gallons per person, per day, public demand in 2050 may increased by up to 850 million gallons each day. Without a doubt, supplying water to this expanding population will put Arizona in a predicament in the near future. The problem arises because most surface water supplies are completely allocated and groundwater is being consumed at an unsustainable rate.3
Making the looming water crisis direr, historic prioritizing of water rights means that Arizona will be the first state to suffer whenever the surface water resource of the Colorado River comes up short. Arizona currently gets one-third of its water from the Colorado River. But as the river dries, Arizona will lose up to eighty percent of this resource before neighboring states incur any significant loss.4 Unfortunately, reduced runoff into the Colorado River has occurred annually since 2000.5
Traffic: Vehicle traffic on Arizona highways increased by 71 percent between 1990 and 2008, double the national average. One-fifth (20%) of roads in Arizona were assessed to be in poor or mediocre condition in 2010, and 12 percent of its bridges are structurally deficient or obsolete.6 Phoenix is one of the most congested urban areas in the U.S. The average commuter was delayed by 44 hours and used an additional 31 gallons of gas due to traffic conditions in 2007. Tuscon commuters experienced similar delays, logging 41 hours per driver in delays and burning through 26 gallons of fuel. Between the two urban areas, wasted fuel and time cost commuters a total of $2.3 billion in 2007.7
As population growth puts more traffic on the roads, the average commute for Arizona residents increased 15 percent during the 1990s, to 22 minutes in 2000. This was a faster rate of increase than the national average of 14 percent.8 Nationwide, the amount of travel in urban areas that was not congested dropped from 74 percent in 1982 to 45 percent in 2007. Prevalence of severe congestion nearly tripled, and the peak period of work-related congestion dubbed “rush hour” has more than doubled in length since 1982.9 About 14 percent of Arizona commuters had a commute of 45 minutes or longer in 2008.10
Phoenix is now the fifth most congested area in the country,11 with roads so congested that the fire department has trouble reaching accident victims—and is considering adding motorcycles to its fleet to speed up response times.12 Despite a $122 million plan to widen Interstate 10, state transportation officials say the freeway will be "bumper to bumper," with more cars than road space by 2025 because of population growth.13
Air Quality: More than half of Arizona counties assessed for ozone risk by the American Lung Association in 2010 received an “F.” No county received an “A.”14
Solid Waste: Arizona generates 1.1 tons of solid waste per capita each year.15 If this solid waste production does not change, and the state's population continues to grow as projected, the states production of solid wastes will increase by an additional 8.3 million tons per year.
Disappearing open space: The amount of developed land in Arizona increased by 988,100 acres from 1982 to 2007, growing at a pace of 61,820 acres per year over the last ten years of that period.16 As Arizona's population has risen, so has the need for additional housing: The total number of housing units in Arizona increased by 32 percent during the 1990s and 16 percent between 2000 and 2005.17 This has led to dramatic losses of open space; Maricopa County, home to more than 60 percent of the state's population, consumes an acre of farmland every hour.18
A study of urban sprawl between 1970 and 1990 that calculated the impact of population increase and per capita land use found that 353.6 square miles of additional land were consumed by urban sprawl in the Phoenix metropolitan area, and 92.0 percent of that sprawl was attributable to population increase. In the Chattanooga metro area sprawl consumed an additional 141.8 square miles and population increase accounted for 79.1 percent of the increase.19
National Parks: Migrant smuggling is causing serious harm to the fragile ecosystems and natural resources in southeastern Arizona, a recent government report found. It reported that wilderness areas are being damaged by the creation of unwanted trails and roads, damage to existing trails, and large amounts of trash: "This proliferation of trails damages and destroys cactus and other sensitive vegetation, disrupts or prohibits revegetation, disturbs wildlife and their cover and travel routes, causes soil compaction and erosion, impacts stream bank stability, and often times confuses legitimate users of trails on federal lands."20
Trash and human waste left behind by illegal immigrants also affect soil and water quality.21 It is estimated that each undocumented immigrant crossing the border into the United States discards at least eight pounds of trash in southern Arizona, where thousands of acres are covered in trash.22
An environmental impact study of the damage to the Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument, where officials caught 200,000 illegal aliens in 2001, finds that it could take 20 years for the area to recover from damage wrought by smugglers and illegal aliens trekking through. 200 miles of unauthorized roads have been carved into the park's wilderness.23
Crowded housing: An estimated 99,031 of Arizona's housing units were classified as crowded in 2008, defined as units with more than one occupant per room. This amounted to 4.4 percent of the state's housing units. 28,963 of those were severely crowded, with at least 1.5 occupants per room. Per housing unit, the state's rate of crowded housing is nearly 150 percent of the national average and trails only Hawaii, California, Texas and New York.24 Following the national trend, crowded housing rates were driven upward by immigration. 28 percent of Arizona's children in immigrant families live in crowded housing, compared to just 13 percent of children with native-born parents.25
Arizona is home to some of the most crowded cities in the nation. Seven of Arizona's eight metropolitan areas with more than 65,000 people were in the top 100 nationally in prevalence of crowded housing, and all eight were within the top half. The Show Low area is third nationally in rate of severe crowding fifth nationally crowded housing, and Flagstaff and Yuma were both among the 25 most crowded cities.
Crime: The population growth in Arizona's prison system ranks among the top four states in the country, and the population in Arizona's prisons is expected to increase by 52 percent by 2017.26 Arizona has 4,000 more prisoners than the system was designed to handle which has forced officials to transfer 1,200 inmates to Indiana.27
Poverty: Arizona's immigrants are more likely to be poor than their native-born counterparts. In 2007, 21.5 percent of foreign-born households were below the poverty line, compared to 12.8 percent of native households. An additional 15.1 percent of the foreign-born and 8.5 percent of native households had incomes between 100 and 149 percent of the poverty level.28 34.5 percent of children in immigrant families were poor in 2006, compared to 17.5 percent of native children. 29
School Overcrowding: Nearly one-third, or 31 percent, of Arizona's children have immigrant parents. Seven percent are themselves foreign-born.30 This influx of immigrants and their children is contributing to severe school overcrowding problems in the state. Public school enrollment in Arizona increased by about 255,000 students between 1998 and 2008. Over the same period, the number of students per teacher increased from 19.0 to 19.7, the third-worst ratio in the country. Nationally, only two other states had fewer teachers per student in 2008 than in 1998.31
In Phoenix, schools are so crowded that some students are attending classes in a former mall and in a converted grocery store.32 In Mesa, schools have even run out of room for classroom trailers, over 700 elementary school students attend classes in an old grocery store.33 In Gilbert, which is growing faster than any U.S. community its size, schools are so crowded that some students went without desks and cafeteria tables at the start of the 2003-04 school year.34
Illegal Immigration: In some areas, such as Douglas, residents are so fearful of alien smugglers that they say they avoid going out alone at night.35 In Cochise County, which shares 84 miles of border with Mexico, problems associated with illegal immigration cost residents 37 cents of every tax dollar they pay (according to the county's sheriff).36 Approximately ten percent of the county's health department budget goes toward treatment of illegal aliens.37
- Harold Kitching, "Quenching Growth," Casa Grande Valley Newspaper, May 6, 2008.
- Tony Raap, Experts fear water shortage from Colorado River to strive earlier than predicted," Today’s News Herald-havasunews.com, February 26, 2007.
- Robert Glennon & Michael J. Pearce, "Transferring Mainstem Colorado River Water Rights: The Arizona Experience," Arizona Law Review: Volume 49, 2007.
- Tony Raap, Experts fear water shortage from Colorado River to strive earlier than predicted," Today’s News Herald-havasunews.com, February 26, 2007
- Cary Blake, "Arizona faces potential water supply shortage from Colorado River by 2011," Western Farm Press, December 6, 2007
- The Road Information Project, “Key Facts About Arizona’s Surface Transportation System and Federal Funding,” May 2010.
- Texas Transportation Institute, “Urban Mobility Report 2009.”
- Tony Raap, “Experts fear water shortage from Colorado River to strive earlier than predicted," Today’s News Herald-havasunews.com, February 26, 2007. Cary Blake, "Arizona faces potential water supply shortage from Colorado River by 2011," Western Farm Press, December 6, 2007
- Texas Transportation Institute, “Urban Mobility Report 2009,” p 8-9, 22-24
- American Community Survey, 2008 Estimates, Custom Data Table.
- Katie Warchut, "Freeways Ease Congestion, But More Crops Up," Arizona Republic, October 1, 2003.
- Judi Villa, "Fire Dept. Mulls Motorcycle Medics," Arizona Republic, August 25, 2003.
- Garry Duffy, "I-10 Gridlock," Tucson Citizen, February 24, 2004
- American Lung Association, “State of the Air 2010.”
- Report Card for America's Infrastructure 2005," American Society of Civil Engineers.
- USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, “Summary Report: 2007 National Resources Inventory.”
- Table DP-1-4, Profile of General Demographic Characteristics: 1990," 1990 Census, U.S. Census Bureau.
"Table DP-1-4, Profile of General Demographic Characteristics: 1990," 1990 Census, U.S. Census Bureau.
"Data Set: 2005 American Community Survey: Arizona 2005," American Factfinder, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Jon Kamman, "3.1 Million More People Likely in Arizona by 2020," Arizona Republic, January 8, 2002.
- Beck, Roy and Leon Kolankiewicz, "Weighing Sprawl Factors in Large U.S. Cities," NumbersUSA, March 2001.
- Report to the House of Representatives Committee on Appropriations on Impacts Caused by Undocumented Aliens Crossing Federal Lands in Southeast Arizona, a joint project by the Immigration & Naturalization Service, the Interior Department, and the Environmental Protection Agency, April 29, 2002.
- "Environmental Damage from Illegal Immigration, Border Enforcement Activities In American SouthWest,", California Political Desk, February 1, 2006.
- "A Summary of 2003 - 2005 Accomplishments," Southern Arizona Project to Mitigate Environmental Damages Resulting from Illegal Immigration. U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management. Report to the House of Representatives Committee on Appropriations on Impacts Caused by Undocumented Aliens Crossing Federal Lands in Southeast Arizona, a joint project by the Immigration & Naturalization Service, the Interior Department, and the Environmental Protection Agency, April 29, 2002.
- Mary Jo Pitzl, "Increased Illegal Crossings Strain Organ Pipe to Limit," Arizona Republic, January 14, 2004.
- American Community Survey, Three-Year Estimates 2006-2008. Data retrieved using ACS Custom Table tool.
- Kids Count Data Center, which used 2008 American Community Survey Data.
- Dennis Welch, "Bulging prison bill going up," East Valley/Scottsdale Tribune, February 7, 2007.
"Arizona's Prison Population Projected to Grow Twice as fast as General Resident Population, Independent Study Finds; State Selected as One of Five Justice Reinvestment Learning Sites," Justice Center of the Council of State Governments, February 6, 2007.
- "Will Rising Prison Costs Spark Reform?" Tucson Weekly, March 22, 2007.
- Migration Information Source State Data (Migration Policy Institute)
- Urban Institute, Children of Immigrants Data Tool.
- "Arizona State Factsheet," Migration Information Source, Migration Policy Institute.
- NEA, “Rankings and Estimates,” 1999 and 2009 editions.
- "Districts Ease School Overcrowding with Abandoned Commercial Buildings," Associated Press, August 2, 2000.
- Haya El Nasser, "Schools Forced to Roam in Search of More Room," USA Today, August 18, 2000.
- Stephanie Paterik, "Old West Takes Off-Ramp," Arizona Republic, December 2003.
- "Public Elementary and Secondary School Student Enrollment, High School Completions, and Staff From the Common Core of Data: School Year 2005-06', National Center foe Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, June 2007
- "Arizona Lawmakers Get Earful on Border Issues," Associated Press, October 31, 2001.
- "Social, Financial Costs of Illegal Entry Said High," Associated Press, May 18, 2001.