[Note:children born in the United States to immigrants (part of the immigrant stock) are not included as part of the immigration flow.]

The 2000 population is about 80,000 more persons than the Census Bureau had expected to find in the state in 2000 when it issued its most recent state population projections in 1996. The significance of this is that the Census Bureau has concluded that much of the shortfall in their population estimates during the 1990s was due to an underestimation of the illegal alien population.

Virginia had the 16th greatest rate of population increase in the country between 1960-2000.

FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION

FAIR estimates that the foreign-born population of Virginia was about 806,090 residents in July 2007. This meant a foreign-born population share of 10.5 percent. The amount of change since the 2000 Census indicates an average annual rate of increase in the foreign-born population of about 32,305 people, which is nearly one-third (32.1%) of the state’s annual average population increase. Since 2000, the foreign-born population has increased by 41.3 percent compared to a 6.1 percent increase in the native-born population.

Immigration also contributes to population growth through the children born to immigrants in this country. Nationally the share of births to the foreign-born is about double their share of the population. A 21 percent share of the state’s current births is large enough to account for about 21,210 births a year. Combining the increase in the foreign-born population and estimated immigrant births suggests that immigration may account for adding about 53,500 persons to the state’s population annually, i.e., more than half (53.2%) of the state’s overall population increase.

An indicator of the change in the immigrant population may be seen in data on the share of the population that speaks a language other than English at home. Between 1990 and 2000 the share of non-English speakers at home in Virginia increased by nearly half, from 7.3 percent to 10.8 percent. Less than half (41.3%) of those who said they spoke a language other than English at home in 2000 also said they spoke English less than very well.

The Census Bureau’s American Community Survey found that in 2006, the foreign born population was 773,785 residents, an increase of 35.7 percent since 2000. In comparison, the foreign-born population changed from 311,809 to 570,279 residents between 1990 and 2000, an increase of 82.9 percent.

The ten countries below constituted approximately one half (49.4%) of the foreign-born population in Virginia in 2006. Of the total foreign-born population, 9.3 percent were born in El Salvador, 7.2 percent in Mexico, and 6.3 percent in Korea.

THE IMMIGRANT STOCK
The Census Bureau estimated that there were about 859,000 people in Virginia in 1997 who were "immigrant stock." That is a term that refers to immigrants and their children born here after their arrival. Based on that estimate, and a population of 7,078,515, the immigrant stock share of the state's population was 12.1 percent.

As the graph below shows, the amount and share of Virginia’s population change due to the increase in the foreign stock is rising rapidly. Over the past 34 years the new immigrants and children born to them have added about 802,000 people to the population. Over this period, the increase in the foreign stock has accounted for 28.3 percent of the state’s population increase.

NATURALIZATION
Data from the 2006 American Community Survey indicate that 331,609 residents, or 42.9 percent, of the foreign-born population in Virginia were citizens, compared to 232,767 residents, or 40.8 percent, in 2000.

Nationally, 40.3 percent of the foreign-born population was citizens in 2000 and 42.0 percent were citizens in 2006.

Population Projections

Virginia -- Projected Population in 2050: Projection Scenarios

Virginia's projected population in 2050 could range anywhere from about 9.2 million residents to about 12.1 million. The nearly 3 million difference between these alternatives depends on whether policies aimed at immigration stability are adopted or, instead, currently advocated policies that would accommodate today's illegal alien population, allow a new stream of guest workers and increase legal immigration are adopted.

Without any change in immigration policy or enforcement, i.e., with the current trend in large-scale legal and illegal immigration, the state's population is likely to increase from today's about 7.6 million to 11 to 11.5 million residents in 2050 - an increase of 46 to 51 percent.

The largest difference from the current trend comes in comparison with a zero-net immigration scenario (when arriving immigrants balance those who are departing). In that case, the population would still grow, but by a more modest 22 percent. However, if the currently proposed immigration expansion and illegal alien accommodation proposals were adopted - the amnesty/guest worker/immigration increase scenario - the increase in the projected population over the next 45 years would soar by nearly 60 percent.

Virginia -- Projected Population in 2050: Cohorts

The projection indicates that the population that was already in the country in 1970 - before the effects of the 1965 major change in immigration law - will still be growing in Virginia, by more than 1.1 million persons (17%) over the next 45 years. This trend reflects some net in-migration from other states.

The post-1970 immigrant cohort is projected to grow by about 525,000 residents (63%) by 2050. The high rate of growth is influenced by the larger average family size of these immigrants to the state. At the beginning of the projection, this post-1970 immigrant cohort already accounted for nearly 830,000 of the state's residents. By 2050, this cohort is projected to rise to more than 1.3 million residents on the basis of succeeding generations being larger than that of their forebears.

Without any change in the immigration laws, current mass immigration will continue to add to the state's population. Virginia has had an average of nearly 20,000 legal immigrant admissions per year between 1994 and 2003. We project that immigration from Asian countries will continue to constitute more than half (54%) of the immigrant admissions. Immigrants from Spanish-speaking countries are projected to account for more than 29 percent of the arrivals, if current trends continue. This leaves immigration from countries with predominantly white populations at about 14 percent, and about 3 percent from countries with black populations in Africa, the Caribbean and Latin America. We project that new immigrants and their children from all sources will add more than 1.6 million residents to the state's population over the next 45 years if current trends remain unchanged.

We estimate that Virginia's illegal alien population now numbers more than 190,000 persons. The continued addition of illegal immigrants over the next 45 years, assuming it continues at current rates, is projected to add nearly 640,000 persons to the population from newcomers and their offspring.

Finally, we project that proposals for amnesty and other provision that are currently being advocated, if adopted, would add more than a further more than 670,000 persons to the state's population over the next 45 years. This would result from the family members of amnesty recipients, increased legal immigration, and increased long-term guest worker residents.

Virginia -- Projected Population in 2050: Demographic Change

The rate of population change for the various scenarios depends on the size and demographic composition of the influx of immigrants, and the differential rates of fertility. The following projections are based on the highest scenario, i.e., amnesty/guestworker increases.

Both the Mexican and other Hispanic population segments are projected to continue to increase rapidly (Mexicans by 464% and other Hispanics by 372%). Combined, the Hispanic population is projected to add more than 1.6 million residents. The Asian population is also projected rise sharply - adding more than 1.2 million residents - an increase of 325 percent.

Non-Hispanic whites and blacks over the period of this projection have much lower rates of increase, 14 percent and 60 percent respectively. As a result both have shrinking shares of the state's population.

POPULATION PROJECTION 2000 - 2025
FAIR looked at Virginia's rate of population increase between 1990-2000 and projected that a continuation of that rate would result in a population of 9,910,000 in 2025, an increase of 40 percent above the state's population in 2000.

Virginia will have the 16th greatest rate of increase in the country if it continues at the current rate.

The Census Bureau population projection noted above is the "middle" projection, and it assumes immigration at a net annual increase of 820,000. There are other projections based on different assumptions. In the Census Bureau's "high" immigration projection, assuming annual net immigration of 1,370,000, the population in 2025 is more than six percent higher than in the middle projection, and it is over 11 percent higher by 2050. For Virginia, the high projection could mean a population in 2050 of 10,300,000 to 10,900,000. If today's mass immigration were significantly scaled back, the population increase attributable to immigration and the population spill-over effects from other states could be significantly reduced over time.

Revised July 2008