Policy and Legislation : SPECIAL ELECTION EDITION— November 6, 2008
In this Update:
New President, New Congress Mean New Strategies for Immigration Reform
Arizona Voters Take Stand against Illegal Immigration
Missouri Voters Approve English as Official State Language
: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :
New President, New Congress Mean New Strategies for Immigration Reform
The political landscape shifted dramatically on Election Day, as Americans elected Barack Obama president and a sizeable Democratic majority to Congress. The results of the elections clearly indicate that the American public did not want to continue certain policies of the past few years. Exit polls indicate that the economy was overwhelmingly the most important issue on voters' minds and they held the Bush Administration largely responsible for the current crisis.
In fact, the mandate from the voters was precisely the opposite. Exit polling conducted by the Zogby International polling group for FAIR found that an overwhelming majority of the electorate opposes amnesty. Moreover, among Obama voters, 67 percent said that his support for amnesty was either not a factor in their choice or that they voted for Obama in spite of his position on amnesty.
Because public opinion weighs so heavily against it, the inauguration of President-elect Obama and a strong Democratic majority in Congress does not necessarily translate into another push for an illegal alien amnesty, or higher levels of immigration. Special interest groups will certainly exert strong pressure on these new lawmakers to do so, and their influence may have grown, but their failure to represent the interests of ordinary Americans will be a significant hindrance. This was proven when true immigration reformers defeated amnesty legislation in 2006 under a Republican Congress and in 2007 under a Democratic Congress.
While the country may be in economic turmoil and Washington going through upheaval, one condition remains unchanged after Election Day: The American public remains adamantly opposed to amnesty and still higher levels of immigration. FAIR, which has successfully battled these efforts in the past - under Republican and Democratic administration and control of Congress - will continue to work for the type of immigration policies the majority of the public supports.
The next two years will be difficult, but there are many reasons to believe that if we continue to work hard and enjoy the support of the American public, the immigration reform movement can weather the storm and emerge even stronger.
President-elect Obama will need the good will of the American people. By most accounts, President-elect Obama will inherit the worst economy since the Great Depression. Getting the nation out of this mess will not be easy or painless. He will have to make many unpopular decisions to right the economy and the last thing he can afford is another legislative battle over an unpopular amnesty or immigration increase.
Economic conditions make amnesty and increased immigration even less popular. When President Bush pushed for amnesty and immigration increases in 2007 he enjoyed a relatively good economy, low unemployment, a robust stock market and rising home values. Even under those circumstances, his plans were stymied by unyielding public opposition. It will be even harder for President Obama to convince the American people to accept such a plan when the economy is a prolonged recession and millions of workers are losing their jobs.
The government is broke. An amnesty program would be a very expensive proposition. The recession and the $700 billion bailout have pushed the federal deficit to new records. There simply isn't the money available to carry out an amnesty program, and there are limits to the size of deficits even the federal government can run.
State and local governments are hurting. Most of the costs of mass immigration and a proposed amnesty would have to be borne by state and local governments. Rising unemployment, plummeting real estate values and other economic factors are hurting their revenues and increasing demands on social programs. In the current economic climate, efforts to enact amnesty or increase immigration could run into stiff opposition from state and local officials.
President Obama will want to keep the blue states blue and newly elected Democrats will want to keep their jobs. Traditionally, off-year elections have not been kind to the party in power. And, many of the districts that elected Democrats have been in traditionally Republican areas, indicating that many new members of Congress will be moderates. A reckless and unpopular amnesty battle could cost many of them their jobs in 2010, and they may resist efforts to bring it up.
None of these factors is a guarantee that mass immigration amnesty lobby and their congressional allies will not try to press for passage of their agenda. But there is also a possibility that the next two years could see some positive changes to our immigration policies as well.
Unemployment and recession could increase political pressure for enforcement measures. E-Verify will come up for reauthorization in March. A bleak economic and employment picture could force Congress and the Obama Administration to renew this highly successful jobs protection program and step-up enforcement against employers because the public demands it.
Arizona Voters Take Stand against Illegal Immigration
Arizona voters went to the polls on Election Day and soundly rejected Proposition 202, a ballot initiative that would have made it virtually impossible for state officials to enforce state laws against employers who hire illegal aliens. With almost all Arizona precincts reporting, approximately 60% of Arizona voters have rebuffed the initiative. (CNN Election Center)
Misleadingly titled the Stop Illegal Hiring Act, Proposition 202 would have rendered current law meaningless by changing the requirement that Arizona employers use E-Verify to gain a presumption that they did not intentionally hire an illegal alien. If the initiative would have passed, this provision would have been changed to grant an employer a "non-rebuttable presumption of innocence" as long as the employer took the minimal steps of filing federal I-9 paperwork - a requirement already mandated by federal law. This non-rebuttable presumption would have, in essence, prevented officials from prosecuting employers who hired illegal aliens, as long as they fulfilled the minimal requirement of filing I-9 paperwork.
Proposition 202 was backed by some of the state's largest business owners who formed the group Wake Up, Arizona - a coalition including owners of car washes, homebuilders, prominent Republicans, and fast food franchisees Mac Macgruder and Jason LaVecke. The Arizona Republic reported the day after the election that business groups supporting Proposition 202 had proposed the initiative, raised nearly $900,000 in support of the measure, and launched an advertising campaign two weeks prior to the election. Opponents of Proposition 202, on the other hand, spent only $15,000. (The Arizona Republic, November 5, 2008)
Exit polling indicated that a wide range of Arizonians opposed Proposition 202. According to CNN, men and women both opposed the measure at a rate of about 60%. Proposition 202 was also evenly rejected by Arizona voters without regard to political ideology, religious background, economic status, educational level, and race; in fact, 60% of whites and 56% of Latinos opposed the initiative. (CNN Exit Polling)
Speaking to the misleading title of the initiative and the massive special interest-backed campaign that had deceptively touted Proposition 202 as a crackdown on illegal aliens, State Representative Russell Pearce expressed his pleasure with Arizona voters: "We've got a great, smart electorate here in Arizona." (Id.)
Missouri Voters Approve English as Official State Language
Missouri voters voted overwhelmingly on Election Day to make English the state's official language. Sponsored by State Representative Brian Nieves, Constitutional Amendment 1 passed with over 86% of the vote. Missouri's Constitution will now require that all local and state government meetings - including meetings conducted over the phone or on the internet - be conducted in English only. Amendment 1, which does not apply to informal gatherings, also requires that all Missouri ballots and driver's licenses be printed in English.
Back to main Legislative Update page
