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Illinois

Summary Demographic State Data (and Source)
Population (2008 CB est.):	12,901,563
Population (2000 Census):	12,419,293
Foreign-Born Population (2008 CB est.):	1,821,005
Foreign-Born Population (2000 Census):	1,529,058
Share Foreign-Born (2008 FAIR est.):	14.1%
Share Foreign-Born (2000):	12.3%
Immigrant Stock (2000 CB est.):	2,477,000
Share Immigrant Stock (2000 est.):	19.9%
Naturalized U.S. Citizens (2006 CB est.):	780,039
Share Naturalized (2006):	44.0%
Legal Immigrant Admission (DHS 1997-2006):	423,578
Refugee Admissions (DHS 1997-2006)	24,018
Illegal Alien Population (2008 FAIR est.):	775,000
Costs of Illegal Aliens (2007 FAIR)	$3,495,000,000
Projected 2050 Population (2006 FAIR)	21,044,748

Immigration-driven population growth is taking its toll on Illinois. In the last ten years, one million new residents settled in the state - the equivalent of adding two Tucsons to the state. More than half of these new residents were immigrants. This large-scale population growth is bringing traffic, pollution, overcrowded schools, and lack of affordable housing to the state, decreasing quality of life and straining natural resources.

Illinois : Census Bureau Data

STATE POPULATION

Using the Current Population Survey, the U.S. Census Bureau estimated that in July 2008 Illinois’ population had increased to 12,901,563 residents, i.e., an annual average increase of about 58,105 residents since 2000. That is a rate of increase of about 0.5 percent per year.

NET INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION (NIM)

Based on the Current Population Survey, the Census Bureau estimated that between the 2000 Census and July 2008 the state’s population increased by about 425,895 residents from net international migration (more foreign-born arriving than leaving). That was an annual average increase of about 51,310 residents, i.e., about seven-eighths (88.3%) of the total increase (not including the children born to the immigrants after their arrival in the United States).

The 2000 Census found 12,419,293 persons resident in Illinois. This was an increase of 988,691 persons (8.6%) above the 1990 Census. The amount of increase was the ninth highest in the country. The rate of increase was, however, not among the 25 fastest increasing populations in the country.

The 2000 population is about 370,000 more persons than the Census Bureau had expected to find in the state in 2000 when it issued its most recent state population projections in 1996. The significance of this is that the Census Bureau has concluded that much of the shortfall in their population estimates during the 1990s was due to an underestimation of the illegal alien population.

The 1980 Census recorded 11,427,409 residents in Illinois. By 1990, the population had increased by 0.03 percent to 11,430,602 residents.

FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION

Based on the American Community Survey (ACS), the U.S. Census Bureau estimated that the foreign-born population of Illinois was 1,748,018 persons in 2006. The ACS is a large-scale, continuous sampling process designed to replace the need for a long-form in the 2010 Census. However, because the ACS does not have the same follow-up procedures as the Census to include non-respondents, it may underestimate the foreign-born population.

FAIR estimates that the foreign-born population of Illinois was about 1,821,005 residents in July 2008. This meant a foreign-born population share of 14.1 percent. The amount of change since the 2000 Census indicates an average annual rate of increase in the foreign-born population of about 35,175 people, which is more than three-fifths (60.5%) of the state’s annual average population increase. Since 2000, the foreign-born population has increased by 19.1 percent compared to a 1.7 percent increase in the native-born population.

Immigration also contributes to population growth through the children born to immigrants in this country. Nationally the share of births to the foreign-born is about double their share of the population. A 28.2 percent share of the state’s current births is large enough to account for about 51,210 births a year. Combining the increase in the foreign-born population and estimated immigrant births suggests that immigration may account for nearly 86,400 persons added to the state’s population annually, i.e., more than the total (148.7%) of the state’s overall population increase.

A comparison of the increase in the immigrant population since 1990 with the change in the overall population during the same period shows that immigrant settlement directly accounted for more than half (58.3%) of the state's overall population increase over that decade. The effect of immigration on population change is still greater when the children of the immigrants born here after their arrival are included with their immigrant parents in the calculation. The amount of the overall impact of immigration (immigrants plus their children) on population change is more likely to account for about 75 percent of the state's population increase, based on the increase in the share of those in Illinois who speak a language other than English at home.

The 2000 Census found that 45 percent of Illinois' foreign-born population had arrived in the state since 1990. This demonstrates the effects of the current mass immigration, and it is slightly higher than the national average (43.7%).

An indicator of the change in the immigrant population may be seen in data on the share of the population that speaks a language other than English at home. Between 1990 and 2000 the share of non-English speakers at home (over age 5) in Illinois increased by more than one-third, from 14.2 percent to 19.2 percent. Less than half (47.5%) of those who said they spoke a language other than English at home in 2000 also said they spoke English less than very well.

Speakers of Foreign Languages (at home in Illinois in the 2000 Census)
Spanish	1,253,670
Polish	185,750
German	63,355
Tagalog	62,365
Italian	51,975
Chinese	51,930
Korean	43,710
Greek	40,580
French	40,310
Russian	38,055
(Source: Census Bureau report: Language Spoken at Home for the Population 5 Years and Over, April 2004)

The Census Bureau’s American Community Survey found that in 2006, the foreign born population was 1,773,600 residents, an increase of 16% percent since 2000. In comparison, the foreign-born population changed from 952,272 to 1,529,058 residents between 1990 and 2000, an increase of 60.6 percent.

The ten countries below constituted 71.8% of the foreign-born population in Illinois in 2006. Mexico accounted for nearly two fifths (40.9%) alone

Foreign-Born Change: Top Ten Countries 1990-2006
Rank	Country	1990		Country	2000		Country	2006
1	Mexico	281,651		Mexico	617,828		Mexico	724,845
2	Poland	80,594		Poland	139,710		Poland	156,513
3	Philippines	49,119		India	83,916		India	114,760
4	India	40,817		Philippines	67,072		Philippines	85,612
5	Germany	39,920		China	50,705		China	57,294
6	Italy	33,812		Korea	40,681		Korea	42,547
7	Korea	30,058		Soviet Union	40,290		Germany	30,202
8	United Kingdom	21,181		Germany	32,764		Italy	23,730
9	Yugoslavia	20,953		Italy	27,661		Vietnam	19,743
10	Greece	20,248		Yugoslavia	25,410		Canada	18,148
	All Others	339,919		All Others	406,216		All Others	500,206
	Total	952,272		Total	1,529,058		Total	1,773,600

Between the 2000 Census and the Census Bureau estimate for 2006, the foreign-born population in Illinois increased by nearly 244,500 persons (16%). Latin America (including Mexico) accounted for an increase of more than 119,100 immigrants (16.3%). Mexico alone accounted for an increase of more than 107,000 additional immigrants (up 17.3%). Immigrants from Asia rose by 21.9% (about 79,200 people). Immigrants from Africa rose by 62.7% (nearly 16,400 persons). The immigrant population from Europe and Canada increased by more than 29,800 persons (7.3%).

THE IMMIGRANT STOCK

The Census Bureau estimated that there were about 2,477,000 people in Illinois in 2000 who were "immigrant stock." That is a term that refers to immigrants and their children born here after their arrival. Based on that estimate, and the population of 12,419,293, the immigrant stock share of the state's population was 19.9 percent -- the 12^th largest share in the country.

As the graph below shows, Illinois’ population change due to the increase in the foreign stock is rising rapidly. Over the past 34 years the new immigrants and children born to them have added about 2,152,100 people to the population. Over this period, the increase in the foreign stock has accounted for all of the state’s population increase and then some (134%), because the state had a net loss of native-born residents.

NATURALIZATION

Data from the 2006 American Community Survey indicate that 780,039 residents, or 44 percent, of the foreign-born population in Illinois were citizens, compared to 603,521 residents, or 39.5 percent, in 2000.

Nationally, 40.3 percent of the foreign-born population was citizens in 2000, and 42.0 percent in 2006.

POPULATION PROJECTION 2050

Amnesty+	High-trend	Low-trend	Zero-net
21,044,748	18,861,138	18,064,790	14,019,909

Illinois' projected population in 2050 could range anywhere from about 14 million residents to over 21 million. The 7 million difference between these extremes depends on whether policies aimed at immigration stability are adopted or, instead, currently advocated policies that would accommodate today's illegal alien population, allow a new stream of guest workers and increase legal immigration are adopted.

Without any change in immigration policy or enforcement, i.e., with the current trend in large-scale legal and illegal immigration, the state's population is likely to increase from today's about 12.8 million residents to around 18 to 18.9 million persons in 2050 - an increase of 41 to 47 percent.

The largest difference from the current trend comes in comparison with a zero-net immigration scenario (when arriving immigrants balance those who are departing). In that case, the population would still grow, but more modestly by about 10 percent. However, if the currently proposed immigration expansion and illegal alien accommodation proposals were adopted - the amnesty/guest worker/immigration increase scenario - the increase in the projected population over the next 45 years would be more than 63 percent.

Illinois -- Projected Population in 2050: Cohorts

1970 Pop.	Post-'70 Stock	Legal Post-'04	Illegal Post-'04	Amnesty+
10,762,814	3,257,095	2,767,025	2,074,204	2,183,610

The projection indicates that the pre-1970 population - that was already in the country in 1970 before the effects of the 1965 major change in immigration law began to usher in large immigration increases - may be expected to increase slightly, by about 212,000 residents (2%) over the next 45 years.

Post-1970 immigrants, however, are projected to continue to grow by more than one million people over the 45-year period. At the beginning of the projection, this cohort already accounted for nearly 2.2 million residents, and they are projected to increase to 3.26 million by 2050. The continued 49 percent growth of this post-1970 immigrant cohort is due to the fact that these immigrants and their offspring have on average larger than replacement level families.

Illinois has had an average of more than 39,100 legal immigrant admissions per year from 1994-2003. More than 25 percent of those admissions have been Mexican. With immigrants from other Spanish-speaking countries, about 35 percent are presumed to be Hispanic. The next largest share of Illinois' new immigrants is Asian (32%), with India, Philippines and China leading source countries. About 31 percent of Illinois' immigrants are presumed to be white, as they come from countries such as Poland, former Yugoslavia, and former USSR. Slightly more than two percent of recent immigrants have come from countries with black populations in Africa, the Caribbean and Latin America. We project that all of these new immigrants and their children will add nearly 2.7 million persons to the state's population over the next 45 years.

Illegal immigration to Illinois is dominated by Mexicans, adding more than seven-eighths of an annual addition of more than 40,000 residents. We estimate that Illinois' illegal alien population now numbers more than 600,000 persons. We project that, absent changes in immigration enforcement, the Mexican illegal alien population will continue to grow by more than 35,000 persons per year. This continued increase over the next 45 years is projected to add more than 2 million persons to the population.

Finally, we project a further more than 2.1 million persons will be added to the state's population over the next 45 years if any form of amnesty is adopted that provides legal status for current illegal residents. These persons are already in the country, but the increase will occur because they will bring additional family members to live in the United States, the amnesty will not diminish illegal immigration, and there will be increased legal immigration and an additional increase in foreigners living long-term in the country through a new guest worker program.

Illinois -- Projected Population in 2050: Demographic Change

White, not Hispanic	Mexican	Other Hispanic	Black	Asian	Other
8,495,380	7,041,455	1,022,752	2,684,763	1,617,930	182,467

The rate of population change for the various scenarios depends on the racial/ethnic composition of the influx of continuing and additional immigrants because they represent different trends in family size. That is true for the post-70 immigrant cohort as well as for new immigrant populations. Illinois' 1970 population was predominantly non-Hispanic white, which has a slightly less than replacement level fertility. Thus, the projection for non-Hispanic whites between 2005 and 2050 is for a generally stabilized number - and shrinking share - of the population.

Because a large share of the post-70 immigrant population as well as continuing immigration and amnesty beneficiaries is assumed to be heavily influenced by Mexicans, and this population has a much higher than replacement fertility rate, this cohorts of the populations is projected to rise significantly. The Mexican-born and Mexican heritage population is projected to rise from about 1.5 million in 2005 to more than 7 million in 2050 (379%) under the amnesty/guest worker scenario. Other Hispanics are projected to rise from about 420,000 to more than one million (142%) over the 45 years. Asians are projected to grow less rapidly - from about 580,000 now to about 1.6 million in 2050 (179%). The black and non-Hispanic white populations would have lower rates of increase (42% and 1.7% respectively).

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Illinois : Extended Immigration Data

GENERAL INFORMATION

Illinois has long been a major immigrant settlement state. Recent immigrant settlement is taking on a new role for two reasons. First, the foreign-born population is increasingly made up of illegal aliens and immigrants who entered the United States illegally, which also contributes to a major shift in the sources of origin of the immigrant population. Secondly, because the stream of the native population leaving for elsewhere in the United States has grown into a net outflow, the continuing influx of new immigrants has become a much more significant share of the state's population change. Only in California and New York do new immigrants play a larger role in population increase.

REFUGEE SETTLEMENT

Illinois has received 24,018 refugees over the most recent ten fiscal years (FY'97-'06) including 1,241 persons in FY’06

Under the Office of Refugee Resettlement's (HHS/ORR) assistance funding, Illinois has received grants for FY’05 and FY’06 respectively were $7,073,021 and $7,674,661.

LIMITED ENGLISH PROFICIENCY STUDENTS

Data are not available nationally on immigrant students (either legally or illegally resident in the United States) who are enrolled in primary and secondary schools (K-12). However, many of these students are enrolled in Limited English Proficiency/English Language Learning (LEP/ELL) instruction programs. Many may be U.S.-born, but the majority of these students may be assumed to be either immigrants or the children of immigrants, with the exception being areas with native Americans who speak a native language other than English.

In Illinois, overall enrollment in 2002 (2,068,182) was 2.5 percent below enrollment in 1993. By contrast, LEP enrollment (140,528 - 6.8% of all enrollment) was 48.8 percent higher than a decade earlier.

Data on enrollment in LEP/ELL programs are collected by the federal government from school systems that receive Title VII funds for these special instruction programs. The data on LEP/ELL enrollment are understated because data from private schools that do not apply for Title VII assistance are sketchy.

FOREIGN STUDENTS

The 2006/07 annual report of the Institute of International Education (IIE) lists the number of foreign students attending post-secondary school in Illinois as 25,594.

Several schools in Illinois are listed as having a major concentration of these students:

University of Illinois - Urbana Champaign had enrollment of 5,685 foreign students, 13.8% of total enrollment.

Illinois Institue of Technology had enrollment of 2,753 foreign students, 40.5% of total enrollment.

Northwestern University had enrollment of 2,318 foreign students, 12.5% of total enrollment.

University of Illinois-Chicago had enrollment of 2,098 foreign students, 8.4% of total enrollment.

Southern Illinois Carbondale had enrollment of 1,445 foreign students, 6.9% of total enrollment

Below, a chart illustrates the sharp increase of foreign students attending school in Illinois from 1960-2000.

For information on foreign student issues see: Foreign Students in the United States.

SOCIAL AND OTHER ISSUES

In Carpentersville-based Community Unit School District 300, the number of students who need instruction in Spanish shot up 76 percent between 1995 and 1999. There were some 1,700 Spanish speakers in the district in 1999, according to the Illinois State Board of Education. As many as 63 percent of the students at some schools in District 300 do not speak English, said Jane Schumacher, the district's deputy superintendent. In Carpentersville, as in other suburbs experiencing similarly dramatic demographic makeovers in recent years, social-service agencies are hard pressed to keep pace with the changing face of municipalities once uniformly white and middle class. (Source: Chicago Tribune, June 13, 2000)

LOCAL ORGANIZATION

To view a listing of local immigration reform groups, click here.

STATE CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION VOTING RECORD

You can view the voting record of your representatives in Congress regarding immigration issues in our voting report section.

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Illinois : Immigrant Admissions

Illinois Immigrant Admissions by Fiscal Year
1997	38,128
1998	33,163
1999	36,971
2000	36,180
2001	48,296
2002	47,235
2003	36,180
2004	46,314
2005	52,419
2006	52,459
Total	423,578

Recent immigrant admissions have jumped 132% since admissions just after adoption of the current immigration system in 1965. During the 1965-'69 period, annual admissions averaged 19,867 immigrants. During the 2002-'06 period, admissions averaged 46,168 immigrants.

The charts below show recent immigrant admissions and the cumulative immigrant admissions data since 1965. The number of annual admissions has ranged from 15,587 persons in FY'65 to 83,858 persons in FY'90. The cumulative total of admissions to Illinois between fiscal years 1965 and 2006 was about 1,465,955 immigrants.

The data for fiscal years 1989-91 were artificially raised by the inclusion of former illegal aliens who were amnestied in 1986. According to government data (1991) the number of amnesty applicants from Illinois was 159,861 (121,069 pre-1982 residents and 38,792 agricultural workers). In FY'91 the number was about 30,000 higher than normal as a result of the amnesty enacted in 1986. The number of Mexicans settling in Illinois in FY'91 also was about 30,000 higher than in other years during this period (see the table below).

The data for FY'95, FY'97-'99 and FY;03 were artificially low because the government did not issue green cards to all the eligible applicants for adjustment of status who were already in the United States. In those four years, new immigration could have registered as much as 30 percent higher, if the government had kept up with its workload.

Beginning with FY'01, the INS began to increase admissions as a result of reducing the size of the backlog of Section 245(i) adjustment of status cases, i.e., amnesty, for illegal aliens.

INS DATA BY NATIONALITY: FY'96 - FY'05

The table below furnishes INS data on the immigrants who have been admitted for residence in Louisiana since 1996 by nationality.

The INS data are for nationals of the countries with the largest number of immigrants admitted or adjusted to legal residence each year since 1996. The absence of data means that the total number of admissions to the United States by nationals of that country was not enough to merit detailed reporting in that year.

The nationalities may change each year, so the totals in some cases will not reflect all the immigrants of that nationality who have become legal immigrants in Illinois during this period.

The Department of Homeland Security website is has detailed data on immigrant admissions since FY’03 by year and by country. That resource has data for all source countries. (See http://www.dhs.gov/ximgtn/statistics/data/dslpr.shtm).

A dash (-) indicates that the data for that year was not published for that country in the Immigration Statistical Yearbook. * China includes Hong Kong and Taiwan. The Soviet Union includes Russia and former parts of the USSR. Yugoslavia Bosnia-Herzegovina Croatia Macedonia, Montenegro-Serbia, Slovakia and Slovenia.

The 31 nationalities above represent more than four-fifths (82.5%) of all immigrant settlement and adjustment in Illinois during this ten-year period. More than three-fifths (62.7%) of all immigrants since 1996 came from Mexico, Poland, India, Philippines, former Soviet Union or China. Mexico alone accounted for one-quarter of all new immigrants (25.0%).  

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Illinois : Illegal Aliens

ILLEGAL ALIENS

FAIR Estimate - FAIR estimates the state’s illegal alien population as of 2008 is as many as 775,000 persons. This is part of an overall estimate of the U.S. illegal alien population of about 13 million persons.

INS/DHS Estimate - The INS (now dissolved into the Dept. of Homeland Security) estimated in February 2003 that the resident illegal population in Illinois was 432,000 as of January 2000. This number was 142,000 higher than the INS' 1996 estimate. In Novemeber of 2006, DHS updated teh estimate of thestate's illegal alien population to 520,000. The most recent estimate by DHS put the illegal poulation in the state at 550,000 in 2006.

Other Estimates - The Pew Hispanic Center estimates the illegal alien population of the state at 55,000 to 85,000 as of 2005.

COSTS OF ILLEGAL ALIENS

Incarceration Costs - Illinois has received partial compensation under the federal State Criminal Alien Assistance Program (SCAAP) that was established in 1994 to compensate the states and local jurisdictions for incarceration of "undocumented," aliens who are serving time for a felony conviction or at least two misdemeanors.

The recent SCAAP amounts that Illinois has received were:

The amount of SCAAP awards has been declining in both total distributions and even more as a share of the state’s expenses. In FY’99 the state received 38.6% of its costs. SCAAP data indicate that Illinois's illegal alien inmate population had increased by 71 percent from the 1,653 inmate years in FY'99 to 2,825 inmate years in FY'02, while compensation increased by 13 percent, and subsequently dropped sharply.

Medical Costs - Under the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act, hospitals with emergency rooms are required to treat and stabilize patients with emergency medical needs regardless whether or not they are in the country legally or whether they are able to pay for the treatment. Congress in 2003 enacted an appropriation of $250 million per year (for 4 years) to help offset some of the costs due to use of this service by illegal aliens. This amount has been allocated among the states based upon estimates of the illegal alien population and data on the apprehension of illegal aliens in each state. This amount compensates only a fraction of the medical outlays. For Illinois, the proposed payment in fiscal year 2004 is $10,301,871.

Educational Costs - In our study Breaking the Piggy Bank: How Illegal Immigration is Sending Schools into the Red, we estimated based on 2004 data that educational expenditures for illegal immigration were costing the Illinois taxpayer $2,001.7 billion dollars annually. This cost was partially for educating students who were themselves illegally in the country ($834 million) and in part for the education of their siblings born in the United States to illegal residents ($1,167.6 billion).

Projected Fiscal Costs - In 2006 we estimated that Illinois taxpayers are currently burdened with annual costs of about $2,341 billion because of illegal aliens residing in the state. That estimate was based on only expenditures for education, emergency medical care and incarceration. We projected that those costs will rise unless we gain control over our borders and our worksites. If a new amnesty and increases in immigrants and guest workers were enacted, as proposed by business and ethnic advocacy groups, we project that the cost to the state’s taxpayers for those same programs would rise to $3,917 billion per year in 2010 and to $6,699 billion per year in 2020.

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Illinois : Poll Data

The Northern Illinois University's Center for Government Studies released the Illinois Policy Survey taken from November of 2006 until January of 2007 (of 1,200 residents of voting age) found that:

• 66% find that illegal immigration is either a ‘big problem’ (32%) or ‘somewhat of a problem’ (34%).
• 66% favor punishing employers who hire illegal immigrants.
• 47% support laws against landlords who rent to illegal immigrants.

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Illinois : Immigration Impact

State Population (2006 CB estimate)	12,831,970
State Population in 2000	12,440,970
Average Annual Change 2000-2006	0.5%
Foreign Born Population 20061/	1,862,755
Foreign Born Share 2006	14.5
Foreign Born Population 2000	1,529,058
Foreign Born Share 2000	12.3%
Average Annual Change 2000-2006	3.5%
Population Projection 2010	12.9 Million
Population Projection 2025	13.3 million
Population Projection 2050 (FAIR)	18.9 million

All numbers are from the U.S. Census Bureau unless otherwise noted. Additional Census Bureau, INS, and other immigration-related data are available for Illinois.

POPULATION CHANGE

Illinois’s population increased by 11.7 percent between 1990 and 2000, and by 3.1 percent between 2000 and 2006, bringing Illinois’s total population to approximately 12.8 million. 

Approximately 85 percent of the total population increase between 2000 and 2006 in Illinois was directly attributable to immigrants.

FAIR estimates the illegal alien population in 2005 at 609,000 which ranks 4th in the U.S. This number is 41 percent above the U.S. government estimate of 432,000 in 2000, and 214 percent above the 1990 estimate of 194,000.

According to an estimate of the Pew Hispanic Center, in 2005 there were an estimated 375,000 to 425,000 illegal aliens living in Illinois That ranked  sixth among illegal alien populations in the United States in the PEW estimate.^2/

FAIR estimates in 2004 that the taxpayers of Illinois spent $2001.6 million per year on illegal aliens and their children in public schools.^3/

FAIR’s projected annual fiscal costs to Illinois taxpayers for emergency medical care, education and incarceration resulting if an amnesty is adopted for illegal residents.
Current	2010	2020
$2,341,000,000	$3,917,000,000	$6,699,000,000

POPULATION PROFILE

Illinois (the fifth most populous state in the U.S.) increased by nine percent, or almost one million people, between 1990 and 2000. This was the ninth largest numerical increase in the country

Immigration-driven population growth is taking its toll on Illinois. In the last ten years, one million new residents settled in the state—the equivalent of adding two cities the size Tucson to the state. More than half of these new residents were immigrants. This large-scale population growth is bringing traffic, pollution, overcrowded schools, and lack of affordable housing to the state, decreasing quality of life and straining natural resources.

FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION

Illinois foreign-born population increased by over 21ercent between 2000 and 2006 During that period Illinois gained over 333,000 immigrants, bringing the total number of foreign-born residents in the state to almost 1.9 million.

ENVIRONMENTAL AND QUALITY OF LIFE PROFILE

Water: Between 2000 and 2006, Illinois had a 16 percent increase in its foreign-born population.^4/ That contrasts with a 1.5 percent increase in the native-born population and that included the children born to immigrants. When the U.S.-born children of the foreign-born are included, immigration accounts for all of the state’s growth during that time period.^5/ If the current trends continue, by 2050 Illinois’ population will have increased from 12.8 million in 2006, to over 19.9 million.^6/ Illinois residents currently have a per-capita, daily water usage of 141.7 gallons.^7/ This means that by 2050 human, water usage will exceed that of 2006 by over one billion gallons each day.

Particularly in the Chicago area, massive urban sprawl is making future water constraints more and more of a concern. By 2030, another 2 million people are expected to move to the greater Chicago area. Conversation has begun circulating on how water can be conserved to prepare for this inevitable growth.^8/ By 2050, population projections suggest an increase of 3.4 million residents in the area, which will increase Chicago’s water demand by up to two-thirds.^9/FAIR projects a population increase of nearly 1.3 million residents by 2025.

With many groundwater sources such as the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer becoming severely depleted, it is probable that increased demand in the Chicago area will turn toward Lake Michigan.^10/ In 1967, the Supreme Court ruled that Illinois could only divert up to 2.1 billion gallons each day from the Lake Michigan basin.^11/However, this limit could provide an impetus for controversy as area populations continue to boom. Unfortunately, this additional thirst will come at a time when climate change and excessive drainage continue to threaten lake levels, which are currently near historic lows.^12/

A planning agency projects that eleven townships in five counties on the outer rim of Chicago will experience severe water shortages by 2020, a number that may double by 2030.^13/ Exacerbated by population growth, Illinois will be facing a water crunch in the near future.

Disappearing Open Space: Illinois lost 67,900 acres of prime farmland to development from 1987-1992, the fifth highest rate in the country, according to the American Farmland Trust. The loss accelerated to 160,900 acres from 1992-1997, a 137 percent increase. Much of the farmland loss is to lakefront development, housing, and new subdivisions.^14/

A study of urban sprawl between 1970 and 1990 that calculated the impact of population increase and per capita land use found that 307.3 square miles of additional land were consumed by urban sprawl in the Chicago-NW Indiana metropolitan area, and 5.3 percent of that sprawl was attributable to population increase. In the St. Louis metro area, which crosses into Missouri, sprawl consumed an additional 267.6 square miles and population increase accounted for 7.3 percent of the increase. ^15/

“There is a lot of farmland conversion that has occurred in the state the last 10 to 15 years,” says the supervisor the Illinois Department of Agriculture’s office of farmland protection. “If the population continues to increase, our reliance on production agriculture will continue to increase, and we could see a crisis down the road.” ^16/

Air Pollution: As population increases, pollution often rises along with it. Emissions from Illinois contribute more to global warming than releases from 99 developing countries combined, according to a study by the National Environmental Trust. Illinois discharged 58.6 million metric tons of carbon equivalent into the atmosphere in 1999, ranking seventh among all states for carbon dioxide emissions, blamed for global warming.^17/

Will, Saint Clair, Madison, Lake, Jersey, and Cook counties all received a grade of “F” in the American Lung Associations state of the air 2005 report. Two other counties received D’s, and eight counties received C’s. ^18/

Solid Waste: Illinois generates 1.3 tons of solid waste per capita. ^19/

Traffic: As population growth put more traffic on the roads, the average commute for Illinois residents increased 12 percent during the 1990s, from 25 minutes in 1990 to 28 minutes in 2000, and to 28.1 in 2005. ^{20/, 21/} 45% of Illinois' major urban roads are congested. 39% of Illinois' major roads are in poor or mediocre condition, and driving on roads in need of repair costs Illinois motorists $2.2 billion a year in extra vehicle repairs and operating costs --- $271 per motorist. Congestion in the Chicago metropolitan area costs commuters $985 per person in excess fuel and lost time. ^22/

Rush hour in the Chicago area—the time when roadways are congested—now lasts almost eight hours a day. Area drivers each wasted an average of 67 hours, 104 gallons of gas, and $1,235 sitting in traffic in 2000.^23/

The annual delay per traveler in 2003 in the Chicago metropolitan area was 58 hours (7^th highest in the nation), and in the St. Louis MO-IL area the annual delay per traveler was 35 hours. ^24/ 45 percent of Illinois commuters experience an commute time that is at least 45 minutes (4^th highest in the U.S.). ^25/

Schools: Between 2000 and 2005, Illinois’ K-12 enrollment increase by over 84,000 students (4 percent) ^{26/, 27/}. Illinois’s student teacher ratio of `5.8 currently ranks 35^th in the U.S. ^28/

Despite opening four new public schools in 2002, Chicago still has the same number of crowded schools as it did the previous year, due to rising enrollments. Funding for new construction is drying up because of a cap on local property taxes and limited state dollars. About 150 area schools are overcrowded.^29/

Crowded Housing: In 2005 over 120,000 Illinois households were defined as crowded or severely crowded by housing authorities.30/ Studies show that a rise in crowded housing often correlates with an increase in the number of foreign-born.31/, 32/

Poverty: In 2005 15 percent of immigrants in Illinois had incomes below the poverty level, an increase of 12.5 percent since 2000. Among non-citizens, the poverty rate climbs to 17.1 percent. ^33/

ILLEGAL RESIDENTS

The large population of illegal aliens is straining the state’s health care systems. Many illegal aliens lack health insurance and rely on the local emergency rooms and public health clinics for routine care.^34/

The Chicago police and public service authorities operate under a “don’t ask, don’t tell” order with regard to illegal aliens, adopted in 1989.^35/ Other areas, however, have been frustrated by their inability to work with the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS). The INS angered Greenfield Mayor Don Chapman in 2002, when it declined to take custody of two illegal aliens pulled over in a traffic stop. An INS spokesperson said that the agency had to be focused on other priorities. Two years earlier, INS agents told the Carrollton Police Chief Mike Kiger to release illegal aliens arrested by his department, saying they didn’t have the manpower to send an agent to take the aliens into custody. Kiger said he was so upset that he even offered to transport the illegal aliens to an INS detention center but was told to simply let them go.^36/

ENDNOTES:

1. FAIR estimate based on the 2006 Current Population Survey.
2. "Estimates of the Unauthorized Migrant Population for States based on the March 2005 CPS", Pew Hispanic Center.
3. Martin, Jack. “Breaking the Piggy Bank: How Illegal Immigration is Sending Schools into the Red,” A Report by the Federation for American Immigration Reform.
4. U.S. Census Bureau 2006.
5. Jack Martin. “Issue Brief: Estimation of Foreign Born Birthrate.” FAIR. 2008
6. Jack Martin and Stanley Fogel. “Projecting the U.S. Population to 2050.” FAIR. March 2006.
7. U.S. Geological Survey. 2000.
8. John Roszkowski. “Water conservation counters area’s population growth.” Lake Villa Review. May 15, 2008.
9. Kahrin Deines. “Area’s growth will be primed by water; report will lay out scenarios.” Medill Reports. May 22, 2008.
10. Jerry Dennis. “Water: Demand & Supply.” Chicago Wilderness Magazine. December 2007.
11. Kahrin Deines. “Area’s growth will be primed by water; report will lay out scenarios.” Medill Reports. May 22, 2008.
12. Jerry Dennis. “Water: Demand & Supply.” Chicago Wilderness Magazine. December 2007.
13. “Table DP-1-4, Profile of General Demographic Characteristics: 2000,” Census 2000, U.S. Census Bureau.
14. Beck, Roy and Leon Kolankiewicz, “Weighing Sprawl Factors in Large U.S. Cities,” NumbersUSA, March 2001.
15. Illinois State Factsheet, Migration Information Source, Migration Policy Institute.
16. Gary Wisby, “Illinois Emissions Top 99 Countries’ Combined,” Chicago Sun-Times, September 5, 2002.
17. “State of the Air 2005: Illinois”, American Lung Association.
18. Ibid.
19. “Table DP-1-4, Profile of General Demographic Characteristics: 2000,” Census 2000, U.S. Census Bureau.
20. “Table DP-1-4, Profile of General Demographic Characteristics: 1990,” 1990 Census, U.S. Census Bureau.
21. Report Card for America's Infrastructure 2005," American Society of Civil Engineers.
22. Robert McCoppin, “You Wasted $1,235 and 67 Hours Sitting in Traffic, Study Says,” Chicago Daily Herald, June 24, 2002.
23. "The 2005 Urban Mobility Report", Texas Transportation Institute.
24. “U.S. Population 2007 Data Sheet,” Population Reference Bureau.
25. "Overview of Public Elementary and Secondary Schools and Districts: School Year 1999-2000," National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education.
26. "Public Elementary and Secondary School Student Enrollment, High School Completions, and Staff From the Common Core of Data: School Year 2005-06', National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, June 2007.
27. Ibid.
28. Kate N. Grossman, “Number of Crowded Schools Stays Same,” Chicago Sun-Times, October 10, 2002.
29. Selected Housing Characteristics: 2005 Data Set - 2005 American Community Survey, American Fact Finder, U.S. Census Bureau.
30. Haya El Nasser, “U.S. Neighborhoods Grow More Crowded,” USA Today, July 7, 2002.
31. Randy Capps, “Hardship Among Children of Immigrants: Findings from the 1999 National Survey of America’s Families,” Urban Institute, 2001.
32. “Illinois State Factsheet,” Migration Information Source, Migration Policy Institute.
33. Ana Mendieta, “Hospitals Pay Medical Costs of Undocumented,” Chicago Sun-Times, December 11, 2001
34. Mary Mitchell, “City, State Thumb Nose at Immigration Laws,” Chicago Sun-Times, January 19, 1997.
35. Chicago Sun-Times, January 19, 1997.

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