National Data
| Summary Demographic National Data (and Source) | |
|---|---|
| Population (2009 CB est.) | 307,066,550 |
| Population (2000 Census) | 281,421,906 |
| Foreign-Born Population (2009 CB est.) | 38,517,234 |
| Foreign-Born Population (2000 Census) | 31,107,573 |
| Share Foreign Born (2008 CB est.) | 12.5% |
| Share Foreign-Born (2000 Census) | 11.1% |
| Immigrant Stock (2000 CB est.) | 55,890,000 |
| Share Immigrant Stock (2000 est.) | 20.4% |
| Naturalized U.S. Citizens (2009 Census) | 16,028,758 |
| Share Naturalized (2009) | 41.7% |
| Immigrant Admissions (DHS 2000-2009) | 9,105,162 |
| Illegal Alien Population (2008 FAIR est.) | 13,000,000 |
| Cost of Illegal Immigration (2010 FAIR est.) | $113,006,000,000 |
| Projected Population - 2025 (2006 FAIR) | 460,685,000 |
Immigration is a National Issue
Illegal immigration has become a flashpoint in political debate as it impacts on jobs for Americans, adds to the fiscal burden on U.S. taxpayers, and impacts school systems, neighborhoods and quality of life issues. Our population continues to grow rapidly fueled by even more legal immigration than illegal immigration. Our borders remain insecure while we live under attack from international terrorism. A heated debate is being conducted at the national level between proponents of closing the loopholes that foster illegal immigration and curbing the excess in legal immigration and those who seek to incorporate the illegal alien population with an amnesty and to increase legal admission of immigrants. In the continuing absence of effective controls against illegal immigration, state and local governments are increasingly acting to discourage the settlement of illegal aliens.
The Fiscal Costs of Illegal Immigration
Most of the cost for immigration is paid by the states and municipalities, but a lot is paid for by the federal government too. Our 2010 study, "The Fiscal Burden of Illegal Immigration on United States Taxpayers," found a burden of $28.795 billion annually at the federal level overshadowed by outlays of $84.211 billion at the state and local level. The illegal aliens contribute some taxes, but not as much as would be collected if Americans and other legal workers were doing those jobs.
National population
The Census Bureau's estimate of the U.S. population in mid-2009 was 307,066,550 residents. This represents an annual average population increase of about 2.8 million residents per year since the 2000 Census, i.e. an increase of about one percent per year.
Between 1990 and 2000 the U.S. population increased by 13.1 percent (from 248,909,873 to 281,421,906). This was 1.4 million more people than were expected, which Census Bureau officials said resulted in part from a better job in counting illegal aliens than in the past. Because of the better count in 2000, the population averaged a 3.25 million resident increase each year.
The population increase in the 1990s was 2.24 million per year. During the 1980s, the U.S. population increased also by about one percent per year (from 226,542,203 to 248,909,873 residents).
The chart below shows the population found by the census in 1980 through 2000 and the current population estimate of the U.S. Census Bureau (the dots). It also shows the how those findings conform with a steady rate of population increase of 1.06 percent per year (the line). The census findings are very close to the steady rate of increase with deviation perhaps explained by variation in the completeness of the census enumeration.
The implication of the past average rate of increase is that, if it continues, the U.S. population will grow to 363.5 million residents in 2025 and to 473.3 million in 2050. This latter population projection is slightly higher than our projection based on a 2006 study discussed below.
Foreign-born population
The Census Bureau estimates on the basis of the American community Survey that the foreign-born population was about 38,517,234 residents in July 2009.
This means a foreign-born population share of 12.5 percent — one-in-every-eight residents. The amount of change since the 2000 Census indicates an average annual rate of increase in the foreign-born population of nearly 800,000 people, which is 29 percent of the nation's annual average population increase. Immigration also contributes to population growth through the children born to immigrants in this country. Nationally the share of births to the foreign-born is about double their share of the population. That share of the nation's current births is enough to account for about 690,300 births a year. Combining the increase in the foreign-born population and estimated immigrant births suggests that immigration accounts for the majority (54.1%) of the nation's annual increase in population.
The 2000-2009 increase in the foreign-born population of 23.8 percent was more than three times higher than the 7.3 percent increase in the native-born population. That explains why the foreign-born population share increased from 11.1 percent in 2000 to 12.5 percent.
The 2000 Census recorded that 13,178,276 of the country's foreign-born residents had entered the country during the previous ten years — an average of 1.3 million persons per year. This constituted 42.4 percent of the foreign-born population.
| Speakers at Home of Foreign Languages | |
| Spanish | 28,100,725 |
| French | 1,606,790 |
| Chinese | 1,499,635 |
| German | 1,382,615 |
| Tagalog | 1,224,240 |
| Vietnamese | 1,009,625 |
| Italian | 1,008,370 |
| Korean | 894,065 |
| Russian | 706,240 |
| Polish | 667,415 |
| Arabic | 614,580 |
| Portuguese | 563,835 |
| (Source: Census Bureau report: Language Spoken at Home for the Population 5 Years and Over, April 2004) | |
An indicator of the change the country is experiencing as a result of mass immigration may be seen in 2000 Census data on language spoken at home. The data show that the share of non-English speakers at home increased from 13.8 percent in the 1990 Census to 17.6 percent. Among the non-English speakers at home, those who spoke Spanish rose from 54.5 percent in 1990 to 59.6 percent in 2000. Less than half (45.4%) of those who said they spoke a language other than English at home in 2000 also said they spoke English less than very well.
| Foreign-Born Change Since 1980: Top Ten Countries 1980-2000 (in thousands) |
||||||||
| Rank | Country | 1980 | Country | 1990 | Country | 2000 | ||
| 1 | Mexico | 2,199 | Mexico | 4,298 | Mexico | 9,177 | ||
| 2 | Germany | 849 | Philip. | 913 | China * | 1,519 | ||
| 3 | Canada | 843 | Canada | 745 | Philip. | 1,369 | ||
| 4 | Italy | 832 | Cuba | 737 | India | 1,023 | ||
| 5 | U.K. | 669 | Germany | 712 | Vietnam | 988 | ||
| 6 | Cuba | 608 | U.K. | 640 | Cuba | 873 | ||
| 7 | Philip. | 501 | Italy | 581 | Korea | 864 | ||
| 8 | Poland | 418 | Korea | 568 | Canada | 821 | ||
| 9 | Sov.Un. | 406 | Vietnam | 543 | El Sal. | 817 | ||
| 10 | Korea | 290 | China | 530 | Germany | 707 | ||
| 11 | China | 286 | El Sal. | 465 | Dom.Rep. | 688 | ||
| 12 | Vietnam | 231 | India | 450 | U.K. | 678 | ||
| All Others | 5,949 | All Other | 8,585 | All Others | 12,238 | |||
| Total | 14,080 | Total | 19,767 | Total | 31,108 | |||
| * China includes Hong Kong and Taiwan; Data for Soviet Union include Russia, Ukraine & Belarus. | ||||||||
The twelve countries above constituted three-fifths (60.7%) of the foreign-born population in 2000. Mexico alone accounted for nearly three-fifths (29.5%) of the foreign-born total. Compared to the 4.44 million Mexican-born residents from the 2000 Census who said they arrived in the United States during the 1990s, INS data indicate that the total number of newly arriving Mexican immigrants who were legally admitted for permanent residence during that period numbered 683,578 persons. The more than 3.7 million person discrepancy between those two numbers points to the large illegal immigration flow from Mexico. Similarly, the increase in the population of Salvadorans (352,000) was much larger than the number of newly arriving immigrants admitted during that decade (122,161.)
Findings by the Center for Immigration Studies from the Census Bureau's 2000 Current Population Survey (CPS) were:
- 17.6 percent of all children four-years old and younger were born to immigrant mothers. A comparable share (16.3%) of older children was also born to immigrant mothers.
- 40.1 percent of immigrants aged 18 and older have become U.S. citizens.
- 44 percent of immigrants and their children are in poverty or near poverty (compared to 27.8% of native-born residents).
- 30.9 percent of immigrants and their children do not have health insurance (compared with 13% of native born residents).
- 19.7 percent of immigrant-headed households receive welfare -- despite the fact that illegal immigrants are ineligible for welfare — (compared with 13.3% of native-born households).
Distribution of the foreign born increase
Eleven states had increases of more than 400,000 foreign-born residents between 1970 and 2000. Four of them had increases of more than one million residents, i.e., California, Florida, New York, and Texas. Besides those four states and the other traditional immigrant-settlement states of New Jersey and Illinois, the other newly emergent immigrant high-impact states were Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia and Washington.
Twelve states had increases of more than 510 percent in their foreign-born populations between 1970 and 2000. Three had more than a ten-fold increase: Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. Only Texas among traditional immigrant settlement states was one of these top-12 states. The others in this category were Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.
There were five states that were among those with both the highest rate of change in foreign-born population as well as the highest number of additional foreign-born residents
The immigrant stock
According to a 2000 report of the Census Bureau, there were about 55.9 million people in the United States who were "immigrant stock. That is a term that refers to immigrants and their children born here after their arrival. As a national average, that meant that more than one in five U.S. residents (20.4%) was immigrant stock in 2000. The size of the Census Bureau's estimate of the immigrant stock for each state is shown in the table below.
There are about 10 to 11 million children under the age 18 who are children of immigrants. This information is derived from the Children of Immigrants Longitudinal Study the largest research project on the topic in the country. (Source: The Houston Chronicle, October 3, 1999)
As the graph below shows, the amount and share of the U.S. population change due to the increase in the foreign stock is rising rapidly. Over the past 34 years the new immigrants and children born to them have added about 45,857,200 people to the population. Over this period, the increase in the foreign stock has accounted for 50.7 percent of the country's population increase. Since 2000, the increase in the post-1970 foreign stock has been responsible for about 62 percent of the overall population increase.
The increase in the immigrant stock was responsible for all of the population increase since 1970 in Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. It accounted for more than three-fourths of the population increase in California, Iowa, and North Dakota. Three other states had more than half of their population increase since 1970 accounted for by the increase in the immigrant stock: Hawaii, Michigan and Ohio.
Net International Migration (NIM)
Using the Current Population Survey (a smaller sample than the ACS) the Census Bureau estimated that between the 2000 Census and July 2008 the country's population increased by 8,114,516 from Net International Migration. That was an annual average increase of 977,653 (or 35.8%) of the total increase. The remainder was due to a greater number of births than deaths.
[Note that these population changes record the children born in United States to immigrants (part of the immigrant stock) as part of the natural change rather than a part of the immigration flow.]
Naturalization
Data collected in the Current population Survey indicate that in 2009 about two-fifths (41.7%) of the foreign-born residents were naturalized U.S. citizens. The number naturalized was 16,028,758. The rate of naturalization varied widely by nationality and by location (from 27.2% in North Carolina to 55.3% in Hawaii).
Data from the 2000 Census recorded the U.S. naturalized population at 12,542,626. That was a naturalization rate of 40.3 percent.
Data from the 1990 Census showed that 7,966,998 (40.5%) of the U.S.'s foreign-born residents (19,767,316) had become naturalized U.S. citizens. Before the current rapid growth in the foreign-born population began, the naturalization rate was much higher. In 1970 it was 63.6 percent.
Data on Immigrant Admissions
Since 2000, new immigrant admissions have averaged more than one-million persons each year. When the stream of illegal entrants and visa overstayers is added to legal admissions, immigration's share of population growth is even larger.
Immigrant admissions to the United States have risen steadily since the adoption of the current immigration system in 1965. The recent rate of new immigrants has about tripled from the rate of the late 1960s. The chart below shows the immigrant admissions data since 1965 and the cumulative amount of those immigrant admissions (28.95 million immigrants as of 2006). The number of annual admissions has ranged from 296,697 in FY'65 to 1,827,167 in FY'91. The higher level of admissions from FY'89-'91 was due the inclusion of illegal immigrants who were given legal status as a result of the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) amnesty enacted in 1986.
Each year the government releases annual data on the number of new immigrants. Some are newly arrived from abroad and others may already be in the United States in another status before being granted immigrant status. The table below furnishes data on the immigrants who have been admitted for residence in the United State since fiscal year 2000 by nationality.
| 2000 | 849,807 |
| 2001 | 1,064,318 |
| 2002 | 1,063,732 |
| 2003 | 703,542 |
| 2004 | 957,883 |
| 2005 | 1,122,373 |
| 2006 | 1,266,264 |
| 2007 | 1,052,415 |
| 2008 | 1,107,126 |
| 2009 | 1,130,818 |
The admissions data show that for the past five years (since 2005) the average number of immigrant admissions has been 1,135,799 persons.
The table below shows INS immigrant admissions for nationals of the countries with the largest number of immigrants admitted or adjusted to legal residence each year since 1996. The Department of Homeland Security website has detailed data on immigrant admissions since FY'03 by year and by country. (See http://www.dhs.gov/ximgtn/statistics/data/dslpr.shtm)
View Immigrant Admissions by Fiscal Year
Historical Immigrant Admission Data: 1820 - 2009
The following data on immigration by decade and by geographic region show the buildup of massive immigration in the early 1990s, the drop following the adoption of a policy of immigration restriction in the early 1920s, and the expansion in immigrant admissions following the removal of the restrictive policy in 1965.
State Summary Data 2000 Census
(in thousands)
| Foreign-Born | Immigrant Stock | ||||||
| Pop. | Pop. | % | Pop. | % | New Immigrants |
Illegal Aliens |
|
| Alabama | 4,447 | 88 | 2% | 136 | 3.1% | 19 | 24 |
| Alaska | 627 | 37 | 5.9% | 83 | 13.2% | 12 | 5 |
| Arizona | 5,131 | 656 | 12.8% | 1,321 | 25.7% | 105 | 283 |
| Arkansas | 2,673 | 74 | 2.8% | 124 | 4.6% | 15 | 27 |
| California | 33,872 | 8,864 | 26.2% | 15,896 | 46.9% | 2,163 | 2,209 |
| Colorado | 4,301 | 370 | 8.6% | 753 | 17.5% | 84 | 144 |
| Connecticut | 3,406 | 370 | 10.9% | 806 | 23.7% | 101 | 39 |
| Delaware | 784 | 45 | 5.7% | 71 | 9.1% | 13 | 10 |
| D.C. | 572 | 74 | 12.9% | 98 | 17.1% | 30 | 7 |
| Florida | 15,982 | 2,671 | 16.7% | 4,637 | 29.0% | 755 | 337 |
| Georgia | 8,187 | 577 | 7.1% | 541 | 6.6% | 133 | 228 |
| Hawaii | 1,212 | 212 | 17.5% | 433 | 35.7% | 67 | 2 |
| Idaho | 1,294 | 64 | 5.0% | 166 | 12.8% | 18 | 19 |
| Illinois | 12,419 | 1,529 | 12.3% | 2,477 | 19.9% | 505 | 432 |
| Indiana | 6,081 | 187 | 3.1% | 370 | 6.1% | 45 | 45 |
| Iowa | 2,926 | 91 | 3.1% | 275 | 9.4% | 30 | 24 |
| Kansas | 2,688 | 135 | 5.0% | 308 | 11.5% | 35 | 47 |
| Kentucky | 4,042 | 80 | 2.0% | 180 | 4.5% | 26 | 15 |
| Louisiana | 4,469 | 116 | 2.6% | 215 | 4.8% | 32 | 5 |
| Maine | 1,275 | 37 | 2.9% | 139 | 10.9% | 9 | <3 |
| Maryland | 5,297 | 518 | 9.8% | 861 | 16.3% | 182 | 56 |
| Massachusetts | 6,349 | 773 | 12.2% | 1,708 | 26.9% | 224 | 87 |
| Michigan | 9,938 | 524 | 5.3% | 1,298 | 13.1% | 161 | 70 |
| Minnesota | 4,920 | 260 | 5.3% | 500 | 10.2% | 86 | 60 |
| Mississippi | 2,845 | 40 | 1.4% | 61 | 2.1% | 10 | 8 |
| Missouri | 5,595 | 151 | 2.7% | 335 | 6.0% | 53 | 22 |
| Montana | 902 | 16 | 1.8% | 64 | 7.1% | 4 | <3 |
| Nebraska | 1,711 | 75 | 4.4% | 156 | 9.1% | 22 | 24 |
| Nevada | 1,998 | 317 | 15.8% | 576 | 28.8% | 66 | 101 |
| New Hampshire | 1,236 | 54 | 4.4% | 174 | 14.1% | 16 | <3 |
| New Jersey | 8,414 | 1,476 | 17.5% | 2,360 | 28.0% | 465 | 221 |
| New Mexico | 1,819 | 150 | 8.2% | 277 | 15.2% | 35 | 39 |
| New York | 18,977 | 3,868 | 20.4% | 6,759 | 35.6% | 1,230 | 489 |
| North Carolina | 8,049 | 430 | 5.3% | 577 | 7.2% | 80 | 206 |
| North Dakota | 642 | 12 | 1.9% | 52 | 8.1% | 5 | <3 |
| Ohio | 11,353 | 339 | 3.0% | 953 | 8.4% | 99 | 40 |
| Oklahoma | 3,451 | 132 | 3.8% | 258 | 7.5% | 32 | 46 |
| Oregon | 3,421 | 290 | 8.5% | 615 | 18.0% | 76 | 90 |
| Pennsylvania | 12,281 | 508 | 4.1% | 1,175 | 9.6% | 164 | 49 |
| Rhode Island | 1,048 | 119 | 11.4% | 252 | 24.0% | 27 | 16 |
| South Carolina | 4,012 | 115 | 2.9% | 131 | 3.3% | 23 | 36 |
| South Dakota | 755 | 13 | 1.8% | 43 | 5.7% | 5 | <3 |
| Tennessee | 5,689 | 159 | 2.8% | 232 | 4.1% | 42 | 46 |
| Texas | 20,852 | 2,900 | 13.9% | 4,801 | 23.0% | 647 | 1,041 |
| Utah | 2,233 | 159 | 7.1% | 222 | 9.9% | 37 | 65 |
| Vermont | 609 | 23 | 3.8% | 71 | 11.7% | 7 | <3 |
| Virginia | 7,079 | 570 | 8.1% | 859 | 12.1% | 192 | 103 |
| Washington | 5,894 | 614 | 10.4% | 950 | 16.1% | 186 | 136 |
| West Virginia | 1,808 | 19 | 1.1% | 47 | 2.6% | 6 | <3 |
| Wisconsin | 5,364 | 194 | 3.6% | 467 | 8.7% | 49 | 41 |
| Wyoming | 394 | 11 | 2.3% | 29 | 5.9% | 3 | <3 |
| TOTAL | 281,422 | 31,108 | 11.1% | 55,892 | 19.9% | 8,356 | 7,000 |
|
For more recent data and estimates as well as the impact of immigration, click on one of the above states. For our current estimate of the illegal alien population for each state, go to How Many Illegal Aliens?" |
Refugee and asylee admissions
Since 1996, the nation has admitted more than one million refugees and nearly 443,000 asylum grantees. Asylum admissions have come to rival refugee admissions. The average annual number of refugee admissions for the past five years (2005-09) has been 79,042 and the number of annual asylum admissions for the same period has been 72,642.
Unlike immigrants, who normally are sponsored by relatives or employers, refugees (including asylees) end up sponsored by the American public. Taxpayer-supported programs include English and job training, housing, Supplemental Security Income assistance and other programs. For example, under the Office of Refugee Resettlement's (HHS) assistance funding for FY'02, $71,900,000 was available for refugee employment training and other services programs based on a three-year refugee settlement program covering 284,646 refugees. This allocation did not include a larger share (55%) of funding programs for communities heavily affected by Cuban and Haitian entrants ($19 million), communities with refugees whose cultural differences made assimilation especially difficult ($26 million), communities impacted by federal welfare reform changes ($14 million), educational support to schools with a significant number of refugee students ($15 million), and discretionary grants ($12.7 million). The FY'02 total of all these programs was $158.6 million (an average of $557 per refugee).
Limited English proficiency/English language learning students
Overall K-12 enrollment has risen from 46.7 million in 1995-96 to 49.9 million in 2007-08. Over that period, the number of students enrolled in Limited English Proficiency (LEP) classes has climbed from 3.2 million to 5.3 million. The increase in LEP enrollment over this period amounts to 89.6 percent of the overall increase in enrollment.
Data on enrollment in LEP/ELL programs is collected by the federal government from school systems that receive Title VII funds for these special instruction programs. LEP enrollment has increased across the country, but like the distribution of legal and illegal immigrants, the greatest concentration continues to be in the states that have been traditional portals for immigrants. State LEP enrollment data for 2003-05 show California (36.5% of the nation's total LEP enrollment), Texas (15.1%), Florida (6.7%), New York (5.3%) and Illinois (4.0%). Catching up with these states is Arizona, which accounted for 3.4 percent of the nation's total LEP enrollment.
In the 2003-05 data, the top five states accounted for more than two thirds (67.6%) of the national total enrollment. This continues a downward trend in the share but not the number - of limited English-speaking immigrant children in these states and an increasing share in other states. The average enrollment share in the five states over the 1995-97 school years was a higher 73.4 percent, and the Arizona enrollment share was lower (2.8%). For the 1991-92 school year the same five states accounted for 75 percent of all of the LEP students.
Foreign students
The 2008/09 "Open Doors" report of the Institute of International Education (IEE) shows the number of international students enrolled in colleges and universities in the United States increased by 8% from the previous year to a total of 671,616 students. The share of total enrollment in two-year through post-graduate education constituted 3.9 percent of total enrollment in 2006-07. To put this into perspective, until 1979-80 international student enrollment was never higher than 1.7 percent of overall enrollment. Then it jumped in that year to 2.4 percent and then continued to slowly climb until it hit 3.1 percent in 1996-97. Foreign student enrollment then jumped again to 3.6 percent the following year and has continued to climb. The highest enrollment share by foreign students was 4.6 percent in the 2002-03 school year, but enrollment growth fell off following the September 11, 2001 attacks, and has begun to climb again. Even after the 9/11 attacks and the greater security screening of foreign students, and the elimination of visas to fraudulent U.S. educational institutions, enrollment never fell to pre-9/11 levels.
Users of the IIE data should keep in mind that the foreign students reported by IIE understates the actual total because of missing data from some schools, and it only includes students on visas and, therefore, does not include foreign students in the country illegally or with other than student visas. The chart below shows the sharp increase in foreign students attending school in the United States from 1960-2009.
The countries with the largest numbers of foreign students in 2008-09 were India (103,260), China-PRC (98,510), Korea (75,065), Canada (29,697), Japan (29,264), Taiwan (28,065), Mexico (14,850), Turkey (13,263), Vietnam (12,823), and Saudi Arabia (12,661). These 10 countries accounted for 62.2 percent of the total foreign student enrollment.
The states that hosted the largest share of the international students in 2008-09 were California (93,124), New York (74,934), Texas (58,188), Massachusetts (33,838), Florida (30,386), Illinois (29,887), Pennsylvania (27,529), Michigan (23,617), Ohio (20,725), and Indiana (17,098). These 10 states accounted for 60.9 percent of the total foreign student enrollment.
Population projection
The chart below is based on a projection of U.S. population growth through the year 2050. The projection was done by the Census Bureau in 1996 with different assumptions (scenarios). The two scenarios depicted in the chart are for zero-net immigration and the "middle series," i.e., most likely based on the current demographic trend, including immigration.
The net zero-scenario assumes the number of new immigrants coming into the country balances those who leave or die. The difference of about 80 million people between the two scenarios depicts the impact of post-1990 immigrants and their offspring on the size of U.S. population. It shows how today's and tomorrow's immigrants and their offspring are likely to account for over 60 percent of the nation's population growth over the next half century if nothing is done to change current policies.
The Census Bureau's "high" immigration projection assumed annual net immigration of 1,370,000 persons. The projected population in 2025 is more than six percent higher than in the middle projection, and it is over 11 percent higher by 2050. The high immigration projection would mean a U.S. population in 2050 of 438,299,000 people. The net-zero projection shows that if today's mass immigration were significantly scaled back, the population increase attributable to immigration could be significantly reduced over time.
The U.S.-born population is increasing by less than one percent per year (.76%) since 2000. At that rate, the U.S.-born population will double in 93 years. By contrast, the foreign-born population is increasing at nearly three percent per year (2.8%) since 2000. At that rate, the foreign-born population will double in 25 years. This difference in the rate of increase is why the foreign-born share grew from less than one-in-twenty residents (4.7%) in 1970 to one-in-eight (12.5%) in 2006. Unless there is a change in the immigration law and/or in its enforcement, this trend likely will result in a foreign-born share of the population that soon exceeds the highest level ever recorded in the United States, i.e., 15 percent in 1890. If the rates of change cited above continue, the U.S. population in 2025 would include about 303 million native-born residents and about 67 million foreign-born residents. That would be a foreign-born share of more than 18 percent of the overall population with no end in sight.
FAIR judges that the Census Bureau's middle series projection understated future population growth. This was borne out when the Census Bureau revised the earlier projection following the 2000 Census. The new mid-level population projection for 2025 was 349.7 million residents, and for 2050 it was for 420.1 million residents. In 2008, the Census Bureau issued a new projection with still higher population numbers. The projected population in 2025 is 357.5 million, and in 2050 is 439 million. No alternative scenarios were released with the new projection. FAIR still judges that this projection understates future population growth. According to a projection released by FAIR in 2006 (Projecting the U.S. Population to 2050: Four Immigration Scenarios), our population is likely to reach 364 million by 2025 and 461 million by 2050 with a continuation of current immigration. It would grow even faster if proposed immigration legislation were enacted (see chart below).
Illegal resident aliens
FAIR Estimate — FAIR’s estimate of the illegal alien population as of 2008 is over 13 million persons. The economic decline and increase in unemployment as well as increased fencing, increased deportations, and increased border control capabilities have resulted in a decline in illegal alien entry and an increase in illegal alien departure since the 2008 estimate. It seems clear that these trends have halted the steady rise in the illegal alien population. It is not clear, however, that these trends have necessarily produced a decrease in the illegal alien population as estimated by the Department of Homeland Security and other organizations.
DHS Estimate The Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS) estimated that the illegal alien population in 2009 was 10.75 million persons. This was a decrease of 8.7 percent from an estimated resident illegal population in 2007 of 11.78 million persons. It was, however, still an increase of 53.3 percent from the estimate of 7,013 million in 2000 by the predecessor INS.
FAIR estimated the illegal alien population in mid-2004 at 10-12 million persons. The Center for Immigration Studies estimated this population at 10 million as of 2004. A much higher estimate of as many as 20 million illegal aliens by Bear-Stearns analysts in January 2005 was based on trend data in housing starts, school enrollment and remittances. The Bear-Stearns analysts relied on an estimated annual entry of about three million illegal aliens a probable overestimate because of duplicate counting.
The DHS and INS estimates do not include certain categories of aliens who enter the country illegally or overstay their entry permit, such as persons granted Temporary Protected Status and others in a quasi-legal state who are granted suspension of deportation as well as illegal aliens who have been in the country for less than one year.
In February 2001 researchers at Northeastern Univ. released a finding that the illegal alien population may have grown to as many as 11 million. The research pointed to illegal immigration as the only plausible explanation for the unexpectedly large number of residents in the country found in the 2000 Census and the discrepancy between payroll data and employment data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Asked by the Boston Globe about the finding, Census Director Kenneth Prewitt said "it is clear that the number of undocumented immigrants is higher [than the INS estimate], but how much higher is unknown." (Boston Globe, Feb. 6, 2001.
Other estimates by independent researchers include one published in Demography in August 2001 that put the total illegal population at 7.1 million (3.9 million Mexicans) and another in the same month by a demographer at the Urban Institute who put the total illegal alien population at 8.5 million (4.5 million Mexicans).
Other Estimates — The Pew Hispanic Center estimated the illegal alien population of the United States at 11.1 million in a 2010 report.
Incarceration Costs — State and local jurisdictions receive partial compensation under the federal State Criminal Alien Assistance Program (SCAAP) established in 1994 to help defray the costs of incarceration of deportable aliens who are serving time for a felony conviction or at least two misdemeanors. Recent budgets submitted by both the Bush and Obama administrations have attempted to end the program by omitting any funding request. Congress, nevertheless, has continued to fund the program.
Recent SCAAP distributions to the states and local jurisdictions have been:
| FY’00 | — | $569 million |
| FY’01 | — | $535 million |
| FY’02 | — | $543 million |
| FY’03 | — | $240 million |
| FY’04 | — | $282 million |
| FY’05 | — | $287 million |
| FY’06 | — | $376 million |
| FY’07 | — | $377 million |
| FY’08 | — | $386 million |
| FY’09 | — | $394 million |
The SCAAP program covers only a share of corrections staff salaries related to the incarceration of criminal aliens. Other expenses such as the feeding, clothing, and medical
The amount of SCAAP awards has leveled off after declining significantly in both total distributions and as a share of the state’s expenses, which have been rising. SCAAP data from FY’02 indicate that the level of compensation was less than 20 percent of expenses. Meanwhile, SCAAP data indicate that the amount of illegal alien detention has increased. In FY'99 the number was about 25.3 thousand prisoner years. In FY’06, the number was about 81.7 thousand prisoner years.
Fiscal Costs — FAIR estimates the federal costs of illegal immigration — including expenditures on the U.S.-born children of illegal aliens at about $29 billion per year as shown in the table below.
| Education | $2,107,800,000 |
| Medical | $5,949,900,000 |
| Admin. of Justice | $7,838,700,000 |
| Public Assistance | $4,714,600,000 |
| General Expenditures | $8,184,400,000 |
| Total | $28,795,400,000 |
These outlays and an additional $84.2 billion expended at the state and local level because of illegal immigration a total of $113 billion per year are described in our 2010 publication The Fiscal Burden of Illegal Immigration on United States Taxpayers.
